Kremlin Insiders Acknowledge Victory Over Ukraine Is Out of Reach

Growing Discord Within Russia’s Political Elite

According to ХВИЛЯ: Within Russia's establishment, voices are increasingly acknowledging that achieving a decisive victory over Ukraine is impossible. Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin shows no willingness to abandon the original goals of his invasion. Prominent figures and analysts are voicing their assessments of the war’s trajectory, underscoring that the situation remains highly volatile.

Oleh Tsarov, a former Ukrainian lawmaker, remarked: 'Professionals at constructing an alternate reality have convinced not only the public but also themselves that the illusion they created is real. Sooner or later, these worlds of illusion and reality must collide. That collision is now happening in the most painful way.'

In 2022, the Kremlin considered Tsarov as a candidate to lead a puppet regime in occupied Kyiv.

Alexei Chadayev, a historian and former Kremlin official who now heads the drone warfare research center 'Ushkuynik,' notes that some participants in the conflict are beginning to realize that prolonging the war for an extended period won’t strengthen Russia’s negotiating position. 'It seems that in the fifth year of the war, some people are starting to understand that continuing the war for another year or two does not seriously improve Russia’s bargaining position. But does Putin realize he is in a dead end? That we do not know,' says Chadayev.

Strategic Debates and the War’s Toll

Vasily Kashin from Moscow’s Higher School of Economics is also actively discussing these issues, trying to make sense of what is happening inside the country. A pragmatic approach to ending the war is backed by some senior officials, including Putin’s deputy chief of staff Sergei Kiriyenko, the Foreign Intelligence Service, and the economic bloc. In contrast, the FSB’s Second Directorate and military propagandists are pushing for escalation.

Russian officials have expressed willingness to end the war if the United States forces Ukraine to comply with the so-called 'Anchorage agreements,' allegedly reached between Putin and Donald Trump in Alaska in August. That deal would require Ukraine to surrender a fortified belt of cities in northern Donetsk region. Kyiv, however, has rejected the agreement.

In the context of the war, recent events point to severe consequences. An attack on Monday night killed 22 people and wounded over 100. Ukrainian medium-range strike drones continue to paralyze Russian logistics in occupied territories. Fuel rationing has been introduced in Luhansk and Donetsk regions, while Crimea has run out of fuel entirely. On Wednesday, drones struck an oil terminal in Saint Petersburg.

Against this backdrop, the pro-Kremlin newspaper 'Moskovsky Komsomolets' removed an article, and retired general and lawmaker Andrei Gurulyov reported that his Telegram channel had been hacked. These incidents highlight the complexity and unpredictability of the situation unfolding in both Ukraine and Russia.

The state of Russia’s political landscape reveals a growing rift over the future strategy for the war. On one side, voices are emerging that call for a pragmatic approach and an end to the conflict; on the other, positions persist that seek continued escalation. These internal contradictions could shape the Kremlin’s future decisions and determine the next phase of events in the region.

As the Kremlin grapples with internal dissent regarding the war's direction, it's crucial to understand President Putin's steadfast commitment to military spending, reflecting his belief in a potential victory. This contrasts sharply with growing calls for a pragmatic reassessment of the conflict. For further insights into Putin's stance on military expenditures and the implications for Russia's future, see his refusal to cut military budgets amid skepticism.