After Novorossiysk drone strikes, Russia's grain exports projected to plummet to 2.5 million tonnes

Grain infrastructure in Novorossiysk suffers heavy damage

According to ХВИЛЯ: Drone attacks on Novorossiysk have left the port's grain infrastructure in ruins. The damaged terminals are beyond repair and will have to be demolished and rebuilt from scratch. According to oil and gas market analyst Mikhail Krutikhin, the strikes destroyed the conveyor trestle serving the terminals and also struck silos at the elevators where grain was being stored.

Export terminals shut down after successive strikes

The impact on shipping capacity was immediate. On 12 August, over one hundred drones targeted both the Novorossiysk grain terminal-which has an annual capacity of 8.5 million tonnes-and the local grain products plant. The following day, the KSK terminal, the last one still operating, suspended its activities. Together, the three halted terminals represent 26.1 million tonnes of annual throughput, more than half of Russia's wheat exports.

As a result, Russian grain exports are expected to fall sharply. Analysts at ProZerno estimate that August shipments could drop to 2.5 million tonnes-2.3 times below the average monthly level. Domestic grain prices in Russia have also slid to a seven-year low. Adding to the pressure, the port of Taman was hit on 30 July, prompting Russian Railways to restrict loading toward southern ports, further constraining export volumes.

These events underscore how vulnerable Russia's grain supply chain is during armed conflict and how deeply the disruptions affect the country's economy. The drop in exports not only reduces revenues for the agricultural sector but also sends ripples through global food markets, given Russia's position as one of the world's largest wheat suppliers. With less grain available, international prices could become more volatile, threatening food security in importing nations.

The ongoing disruptions in grain exports are not limited to Russia. Similar challenges have been faced by Ukraine, where the blockade has severely restricted shipping, allowing only a fraction of its grain to reach global markets. This comparison highlights the broader implications of regional conflicts on food supply chains and international prices.