The average salary in Ukraine may fall in October 2026: experts

In October, the average salary in Ukraine may decrease by approximately 1200–1300 UAH and fall below 31 thousand UAH. Economists link the forecast to the downtime of metallurgical enterprises, the reduction of bonuses for workers, and weaker earnings in trade and the service sector. This is reported by TSN.ua. For context: the average salary in Ukraine in August was 31,892 UAH.

Why salaries in Ukraine may decrease in October 2026

Economist Oleg Penzyin expects that the average figure will decrease to 31 thousand UAH. According to him, the shutdown of 'Zaporizhstal' and the company he referred to as 'Krivorozhstal' will affect payments to more than 20 thousand workers. During the forced downtime, they will receive two-thirds of their salary without bonuses and additional payments.

'The average salary will decrease to 31,000 UAH, that is, by 1200–1300 UAH,' said Penzyin. He also noted layoffs at large companies, retail, and other sectors with above-average salaries. The increase in the number of people looking for work may hinder wage growth.

Problems in the metallurgy sector are already affecting employment: it was previously reported that ArcelorMittal Kryviy Rih halted operations after Russian strikes. The duration of downtime and its impact on payments to workers vary depending on the enterprise.

How downtime at factories affects the average salary

Economist Andriy Shevchishin estimates the planned average figure for October at approximately 32 thousand UAH, however, the actual salary, in his opinion, may be lower than 31 thousand UAH. He connects the risk with falling incomes in metallurgy, trade, retail, and the service sector.

In the metallurgy industry, the salary, according to the expert, may constitute only 50–60% of the earnings. The rest is received by workers for fulfilling plans, night shifts, hazardous conditions, and work intensity. When production stops, these bonuses are not accrued.

Thus, the projected decrease in the average salary does not necessarily mean a uniform reduction in payments for all workers. Those whose income largely depends on bonuses and additional payments are at the greatest risk of losing. The overall labor market background also matters: in August, the average salary decreased by 1.1% from the previous month, although it increased by 23.1% over the year.