Atlantic Ocean circulation may hit collapse point at 2°C if warming accelerates too quickly

Europe's climate at risk as ocean current nears tipping threshold

According to НВ — Техно: The AMOC - the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation - could break down far sooner than previously thought, according to a new modeling study from Utrecht University. Rather than a fixed global warming threshold of 4°C, the research shows the circulation's fate also hinges on how fast temperatures rise. When warming proceeds slowly, the system may remain stable even above 5°C; but at today's rapid pace, collapse occurs at only 2°C.

By changing the rate of CO2 growth in the atmosphere in their simulations, the scientists found there is no single temperature tipping point. The critical speed of warming is roughly 0.3°C per decade, and current levels are already approaching that limit. This means the risk window for a major climate disruption is much narrower than earlier assessments suggested.

Why this matters for climate policy

Once crossed, the breakdown of the ocean circulation would be irreversible. The findings challenge the logic of current international agreements, including the Paris Agreement, where many scenarios allow temperatures to temporarily exceed targets before being brought down by future technologies. The authors argue that limiting the rate of warming should become a separate, explicit priority in global climate policy.

These results raise serious concerns about whether existing commitments are enough, as they focus mainly on absolute temperature levels rather than the speed of change. The study offers a new basis for designing climate strategies that take the dynamics of climate disruption into account.

The research is published with DOI: 10.1038/s41558-026-02730-w.

The implications of climate change extend beyond ocean currents. For instance, recent research highlights that Antarctica's potential contribution to rising sea levels could pose an additional threat, with projections suggesting a two-meter increase. Understanding these interconnected risks is crucial for developing effective climate strategies.