Dollar crosses the threshold of 42 hryvnias: what to expect in the currency market

The dollar rate on the interbank market last week exceeded the mark of 42 UAH for the first time since summer. By the end of trading, the currency closed at 42.00 UAH, while the official rate of the National Bank remained at 41.89 UAH. In the cash market, the dollar rose even more noticeably - from 41.93 to 42.27 UAH.

Expert opinion

Financial analyst Andriy Shevchishin notes that the hryvnia has weakened for the second week in a row against both the dollar and the euro. 'The weakening of the hryvnia has already become a stable trend. The euro rose on the interbank market from 48.52 to 48.55 UAH, and in the cash market - from 49.14 to 49.21 UAH, despite the decline of the euro against the dollar globally,' - the expert explained.

Despite the currency supply deficit, the National Bank is not in a hurry to intervene in the situation. The regulator maintains a policy of 'managed flexibility' - allowing gradual devaluation while preventing sharp jumps.

The population is buying dollars again

In the cash market, the situation is opposite. Demand for currency among Ukrainians increased by 20%, while supply only increased by 1%. As a result, the deficit of cash currency surged to a maximum since February - over $41 million per day.

Interest rate unchanged: the National Bank has chosen a restrained policy

Despite market expectations, the National Bank kept the discount rate at 15.5%. This came as a surprise to many experts.

The dollar rate on the interbank market reached the level of 42 UAH, with the increase in demand for currency among the population and the restrained policy of the National Bank being the key factors influencing the financial market in Ukraine.