Only 73 thousand children were born in Ukraine: Voskoboynik assessed the demographic crisis

The demographic situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate: in the first half of 2026, about 73 thousand children were born, while nearly 260 thousand people died. At the same time, the country is facing a severe labor shortage, exacerbated by migration and an aging population. This is reported by the Office of Migration Policy.

Birth rates in Ukraine have fallen by almost half compared to 2021

According to the data provided on air by the Ministry of Justice, mortality in the first half of 2026 approximately exceeded birth rates by 3.6 times. Compared to the same period in 2025, the number of newborn children decreased by another 16%, and compared to the pre-war year of 2021, the figure has nearly halved.

Currently, about 12 thousand children are born in Ukraine each month. Ten years ago, the figure was approximately 32 thousand. Vasyl Voskoboynik, president of the All-Ukrainian Association of International Employment Companies, explains that the decline in birth rates is characteristic not only for Ukraine, but the war has significantly deepened the problem.

«In order for us to at least maintain the population of our country at one level, we need 22 children to be born for every 10 women. But before the war, we had 14 children, and now only six are being born,» — said Voskoboynik.

Natural decline is compounded by migration. According to the expert's estimate, about 500 thousand people left Ukraine last year alone. Approximately 4.3 million Ukrainians have temporary protection status in EU countries.

Voskoboynik believes that the first two years after the end of hostilities will be crucial for returnees. Security, housing, jobs, and income levels will determine how many people want to come back. Previously, the expert explained what affects the return of Ukrainians after the war.

On 10.5 million ES payments fall millions of retirees

The demographic crisis directly impacts the economy. According to Voskoboynik, currently about 10.5 million people pay ES. Meanwhile, the number of retirees remains close to 10 million.

This creates increasing pressure on the working population. Meanwhile, due to low birth rates, in 18-20 years, fewer young workers will enter the labor market.

The staff shortage is already felt. According to the expert, 71% of industrial enterprises cite lack of qualified personnel as one of the main challenges, while 30% are even short of workers for simple physical labor.

Particularly needed are builders, welders, turners, concrete workers, drivers, and plumbers. At the same time, there is a shortage of teachers, lecturers, doctors, and nurses. Over the past year, the average salary in Ukraine, according to Voskoboynik, has increased by about 22% as employers are forced to compete for workers.

«If there is no specific builder, no matter how much you increase the salary, they will not appear out of thin air,» — emphasized the expert.

Voskoboynik suggests that the solution lies in simultaneously curbing migration, creating conditions for the return of Ukrainians, retraining workers, automation, and targeted recruitment of foreigners in sectors where domestic labor is insufficient.

Mass labor migration to Ukraine is currently absent: according to his data, in May about 9.5 thousand foreigners were working in the country. For comparison, 10.5 million people pay ES.

Previously, Inkorr analyzed why about 5 million Ukrainians do not work, although they formally belong to the working population.