What will the dollar exchange rate be in autumn 2026: forecast by analyst Shevchisin
The National Bank of Ukraine will likely continue to curb sharp fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate through currency interventions. According to financial analyst Andriy Shevchisin, in the coming months, the currency market will remain within a controlled range, although certain risks for the hryvnia still persist. This is reported by Minfin.
Dollar exchange rate in autumn 2026: basic forecast by the analyst
According to the basic scenario, the official dollar exchange rate may be in the range of 44.40-44.90 UAH per dollar this autumn, while in the cash market it will be 44.70-45.20 UAH.
For the euro, the forecast looks like this:
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official rate - 51-52 UAH;
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cash rate - 51.25-51.85 UAH.
According to Andriy Shevchisin, the National Bank has already demonstrated its readiness to intervene actively in the market to prevent sharp fluctuations. The upper limit set by the regulator is around 45-45.5 UAH per dollar.
At the same time, the lower limit remains less defined, as the National Bank has not yet conducted large-scale operations to purchase currency to support the market.
What factors may influence the dollar exchange rate
The analyst notes that the stability of the hryvnia will depend on several factors:
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amounts of international financial assistance;
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behavior of exporters and importers;
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situation in the global currency market, particularly the EUR/USD pair exchange rate.
If the dollar strengthens in international markets, particularly due to higher than expected inflation in the USA, the cash dollar rate in Ukraine may approach 45.5 UAH again. At the same time, the final level, as it is now, will largely be determined by the actions of the National Bank.
What the forecast means for Ukrainians
According to Shevchisin, the main scenario does not foresee sharp currency shocks. For the population, this means a relatively stable rate without significant fluctuations, although it is also premature to talk about a substantial strengthening of the hryvnia.
For businesses, the predicted range allows for more confident planning of import purchases and currency sales. At the same time, the expert warns that overly strict maintenance of the exchange rate could lead to additional pressure on Ukraine's international reserves if demand for currency remains high.
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