After the New Year rush, Ukrainians traditionally keep an eye on prices in stores. Economists predict different scenarios for January's developments – from moderate inflation to a more noticeable price increase. The range of estimates is from 0.5% to 1.5%, depending on the impact of household income, taxes, and the energy situation. This is reported by TSN.
Prices for products after the holidays: what will remain unchanged
Economist Oleg Pendzin expects a relatively calm January with minimal inflation around 0.5%. According to him, the main restraining factor is the decline in consumer demand after the holidays, when household spending sharply decreases.
In such a scenario, the following should not significantly increase in price:
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short-term storage products: milk, yogurts, fresh meat, live fish;
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imported vegetables – cucumbers, tomatoes, and sweet peppers, whose prices are already at peak levels;
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citruses and eggs, as the market supply remains sufficient.
At the same time, even in a calm scenario, a gradual price increase for vegetables and apples is possible due to higher storage costs in professional warehouses, as well as for bread – due to increased production costs.
Price increases for products in January: inflationary risks
Analyst Andriy Shevchishin does not rule out an inflation spike of up to 1.5%. In his opinion, several factors not directly related to the food market will put pressure on prices.
Among the key drivers of growth:
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increase in household income from January 1 due to the rise in minimum wage, pensions, and budget salaries;
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planned increases in excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco, and fuel, which will quickly be reflected in retail prices;
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the so-called 'generator markup', when businesses include fuel costs for backup power due to electricity outages.
Experts note that this combination of factors may outweigh the effect of seasonal declines in demand and lead to a more noticeable increase in the prices of goods in the early weeks of the year.
It should be recalled that in 2026, bread prices may rise in Ukraine, especially for products with more complex recipes.