Report: 'Cracks in the Kremlin Walls'
In May 2026, the New Eurasian Strategies Centre (NEST) released a report titled 'Cracks in the Kremlin Walls.' Co-authored by Sergey Aleksashenko, John Lough, Ella Paneyakh, and Nikolai Petrov, the study argues that Vladimir Putin’s regime is highly resilient to shocks and could only collapse due to the president’s death or serious illness. The document outlines three potential pathways to regime downfall:
- the system’s natural death
- a split among the elites
- a popular uprising
The authors contend that economic and social pressures alone are insufficient to dismantle Putin’s government.
“It is a mistake to expect that economic and social problems can by themselves destroy the Putin regime,” the experts state.They further emphasize that if a threat does emerge, it will 'most likely come not from the liberal anti-war protest movement, but from the radicalized pro-war flank.'
The report notes that oil and gas revenues accounted for just 17.3% of Russia’s federal budget in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, a wave of nationalizations between 2022 and 2026 affected assets equivalent to 2-3% of the country’s gross domestic product. Notable events include the sentencing of General Ivan Popov to five years in prison and the deployment of Sergey Surovikin to Algeria. It also mentions that Yevgeny Prigozhin died in a plane crash two months after his mutiny.
Internal Threats and the Political Landscape
According to the report’s authors, the primary internal economic threat stems from tensions between security forces and pragmatists. At the same time, active militarists make up 20-35% of Russia’s population, and the Kremlin is prepared to absorb 50,000 to 100,000 demobilized soldiers annually. A restructuring within the Kremlin is planned to be completed by the 2030 presidential elections. Among the emerging loyalists, the experts highlight Alexei Dyumin, Secretary of the State Council, as the most prominent figure.
In summary, the NEST report sheds light on Russia’s complex political situation, where the regime endures despite economic hardships and internal conflicts. A key point is the authors’ emphasis that the liberal protest movement does not pose a credible threat to Kremlin stability, suggesting deep societal integration of the regime. The analysis of Russia’s circumstances presented in the report points to potential scenarios that could have significant implications for the region and international relations.
As the geopolitical landscape evolves, understanding the implications of Russia's military strategies becomes increasingly crucial. Recent insights from a Rosneft advisor highlight the nation's preparations for prolonged conflict, shedding light on how these developments may intersect with internal pressures discussed in the NEST report. This context is essential for grasping the complexities of Putin's regime and potential vulnerabilities.