A Call for Strategic Change
James Sherr, a British analyst who accurately predicted Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, is now urging Kyiv to fundamentally shift its approach to the war. He insists that Ukraine must abandon any hopes for a quick ceasefire and instead focus on creating conditions that make it impossible for Russia to achieve victory. Sherr currently serves as a senior fellow at the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute’s Security and Defense Program.
In an interview with the Ukrainian outlet Glavcom, Sherr argued that the war will not simply end, regardless of the damage inflicted on Russia itself. He emphasized that Vladimir Putin retains the authority to continue the conflict, even as it takes a heavy toll on his own country.
“Let Putin pay whatever price he wishes. If he believes that after failed offensives he should keep throwing people into the meat grinder, then so be it. God bless him. Let him do it,” – James Sherr.
Sherr also highlighted that Ukraine’s core challenge is not merely ending the war, but stripping Russia of its ability to achieve its military and political objectives—whether or not Moscow decides to keep fighting. He called for strengthening Ukraine’s capacity not only to sustain itself but also to drive innovation in its economy, deepen social cohesion, and become a meaningful force for security and stability across Europe. According to Sherr, Kyiv’s primary task is to build a reality in which Russia simply cannot win.
Putin’s Position Under Strain
Meanwhile, trust and approval ratings for Vladimir Putin have dropped to their lowest levels since the start of the full-scale invasion. This negative trend in public confidence has persisted for over six weeks, according to data from a state-run Russian sociological survey. Additionally, the investigative project Important Stories has reported on a classified intelligence document from an EU member state, indicating that Putin’s security detail has altered its protocols, effectively isolating him in bunkers.
Sherr’s remarks underscore the urgent need for new strategies to counter Russian aggression, while also pointing to shifting political dynamics inside Russia itself. His call for Ukraine to rethink its wartime approach—combined with growing distrust toward the Russian leader—could signal potential changes in the conflict’s trajectory. As Sherr notes, strengthening Ukraine’s defensive capabilities and internal stability will be essential to countering future Russian aggression. Evolving political conditions in Russia may also alter the conflict’s dynamics, a development that demands close attention from the international community.
As the situation evolves, Sherr's insights resonate with the broader context of the ongoing conflict. His analysis aligns with observations from other experts who assert that Russia's objectives remain unchanged, indicating that the war is far from over. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for grasping the challenges Ukraine faces in redefining its strategy.