The administration of Donald Trump is discussing the possibility of creating a demilitarized or free economic zone in Donbas as part of a peace plan. According to Foreign Policy journalist Anchal Vohra, such measures may not address the roots of the conflict without reliable security guarantees.
Currently, Ukraine controls only 15% of the territory of Donetsk region, where important coal deposits and industrial facilities are located. The proposed plan from the USA involves creating a buffer zone between the conflicting parties. However, these conditions are considered unfair, as they require the withdrawal of troops from controlled territories and recognition of them as part of the Russian Federation, while similar actions are not planned to be demanded from Russia.
Historical parallels and expert assessments
When considering a possible scenario, it is essential to pay attention to the historical experience of similar demilitarized zones, such as in Korea, the Sinai Peninsula, and Cyprus. Experts point out that approaches to conflict territories must be individual and adapted to each situation.
- The Korean scenario: the demilitarized zone in 1953 functioned successfully due to the presence of the US Army.
- The Sinai example: peace between Egypt and Israel was achieved through fundamental political changes.
- The Cyprus precedent: northern Cyprus has not received international recognition after annexation for half a century.
Experts, including Michael Kofman, express doubts about whether Ukraine is genuinely on the brink of defeat. They believe that Russia would not be so interested in seizing Donbas if it were that easy. Additional military operations could deplete Russia's military resources.
Ukraine is considering the possibility of creating a demilitarized zone in Donbas as part of a peace plan, but many experts express doubts about this idea due to unfair demands and a lack of reliable security guarantees.