Assessing the Kremlin's Failures in Ukraine
In a Foreign Affairs podcast, military analyst Michael Koffman evaluated the failure of the Kremlin's two primary strategic gambits in Ukraine over the past year. The first was a military strategy designed to collapse Ukrainian defenses through sustained pressure. Koffman noted that
"the Russian army has been making this bet for a couple of years now, and it hasn't worked"(Michael Koffman). The Kremlin's second wager was political, aiming to push the United States out of the war and fracture the Western coalition supporting Ukraine.
Shifts in Support for Ukraine
This analysis comes as Western support, while enduring, has faced political scrutiny and logistical challenges. In the spring, sentiments emerged in Washington framing Ukraine itself as a problem for negotiations, but by late summer and autumn, the situation shifted dramatically. The United States continued its intelligence sharing and material aid to Ukraine. According to Koffman,
"it's no longer aid without strings attached, but nevertheless: the Europeans are finding the money, we are providing the capabilities, support continues"(Michael Koffman).
However, by year's end, the overall strategic picture had changed little. While the volume of aid has somewhat decreased, the core avenues of support remain open. Koffman emphasized that the question of a Putin victory remains unresolved, asking:
"What is Putin's theory of victory?"(Michael Koffman). According to analyst Robert Kaplan, post-Putin Russia could face a scenario resembling a "lite version of Yugoslavia"—a reference to its potential fragmentation.
Thus, the year was marked by the Kremlin's failure in both its major gambits, while Western backing for Ukraine persists despite changing circumstances.
These assessments underscore that the Kremlin's setbacks may carry long-term consequences for regional stability and international relations. The sustained Western support for Ukraine indicates that the strategic interests of major powers remain constant, even as political moods shift. Simultaneously, Russia's internal situation may evolve in response to domestic and external pressures, creating further uncertainty for the future of the region.