Modern Warfare Analysis: The Cases of Ukraine and Iran
In an article for Tagesspiegel, military expert Carlo Masala examines contemporary warfare through the lens of Ukraine and Iran. He describes how a defending nation can halt a superior aggressor by pursuing a strategy of exhaustion across three key fronts: military, political, and economic. Masala emphasizes that both countries demonstrate how to strategically withstand an aggressor's pressure by prolonging the conflict, thereby raising its costs and delaying its objectives. This analysis highlights a significant shift in 21st-century conflict dynamics, where endurance often trumps rapid, decisive victory.
According to the article, Russia is suffering substantial losses in Ukraine, with over 3,000 tanks destroyed and approximately 25,000 to 30,000 soldiers killed or wounded each month. These staggering losses forced Russia to abandon its initial strategic goal of capturing Kyiv. Militarily, Masala states, Ukraine is inflicting massive casualties on Russian personnel and equipment, proving that 'war is waged not only on the battlefield but also in political and economic dimensions.'
Key Factors for Success in War
Masala notes that the ability to defend oneself while maintaining political legitimacy is critical for achieving success in war.
“Both wars thus demonstrate: the defending side must survive militarily and preserve its political capacity to act—only then can it be considered a victor in the long term.”He also highlights the necessity of resource replenishment and sustained political cohesion, which are replacing classical notions of decisive battles that determine a war's outcome.
Masala underscores that energy can be used as a tool of pressure. In this context, Ukraine strikes Russian oil and gas infrastructure. Iran, for its part, attacks key U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf and the energy infrastructure of neighboring countries, making the Strait of Hormuz hazardous for shipping.
“The ability to hold out longer, regenerate resources, and maintain political cohesion replaces the classical idea of military battles deciding a war. Whoever maximizes the cost of war for the opponent and ultimately survives—wins.”
Therefore, the modern wars involving Ukraine and Iran illustrate the crucial importance of strategic endurance, political legitimacy, and economic pressure in confronting an aggressor. These elements can become decisive factors for achieving victory in the long term. They not only shape the course of military actions but also determine the political stability and economic development of nations involved in conflict. Facing high losses and mounting pressure, countries that can adapt their strategies will have a greater chance of future success.
In light of Masala's analysis, it is essential to understand the broader implications of Russia's military setbacks in Ukraine. The failure to achieve strategic objectives not only reflects on the battlefield but also reveals a significant strategic deficit that has profound effects on both national and international levels. Exploring this aspect can provide deeper insights into the evolving nature of modern warfare and its consequences for aggressor nations.