Business Activity Expectations Index in Ukraine
The Business Activity Expectations Index (BAEI) in Ukraine reached a record level of 49.2 in December 2025, which is higher than in December 2024 (45.9) and the highest over all years of surveys. However, despite the positive trends, various factors are restraining the country's economic activity. Trade enterprises, meanwhile, demonstrate an optimistic mood, positively assessing their economic results for ten consecutive months.
Challenges to Economic Growth
According to data, in November 2025, the BAEI stood at 49.4, indicating small fluctuations in the index. Among the reasons hindering economic growth are:
- deterioration of the security situation,
- prolonged power outages,
- increased production costs,
- destruction of production and logistics capacities,
- shortage of qualified personnel,
- seasonal factors.
These challenges create significant difficulties for many enterprises, especially in the industrial sector, where companies have proven to be the most restrained for the second time in a row.
Against the backdrop of these negative factors, there are still positive moments. Stable consumer demand, incoming international aid, increased supply of food products, and a slowdown in inflation rates contribute to maintaining economic activity. Thus, although the BAEI shows record figures, Ukraine still has to overcome several obstacles to ensure sustainable economic growth.
The growth of the Business Activity Expectations Index in Ukraine indicates a gradual recovery of the economy despite the existing challenges. — Economic Review, 2025
Businesses, especially in the trade sector, note stable consumer demand, which may indicate increasing confidence among consumers. However, for further progress, Ukraine needs to address current issues that hinder the development of industry and the economy as a whole.