NBU Macroeconomic and Monetary Review
The National Bank of Ukraine has released its latest macroeconomic and monetary review, covering economic performance over July and August. Consumer inflation reached 7.7% in July. The NBU attributes the jump to shifted seasonal patterns for some vegetables and faster administered-price growth. In August, inflation kept rising as raw foods, fuel, and public transport became more expensive.
How hostilities are shaping the economy
Business expectations worsened in August after Russia launched widespread attacks. The blocking of the Greater Odesa ports and strikes on metals production led to a sharp drop in freight shipments and industrial activity. Broken trade logistics hurt retail sales and consumer demand. Agriculture, however, posted growth, helped by a record harvest of early crops.
The labor gap narrowed slightly in August, reflecting weaker demand for workers during the mass shelling, yet it remained pronounced. Together with higher public-sector pay, that kept wage growth elevated. The merchandise trade deficit widened in July as blocked shipping routes pushed exports down. International aid inflows helped keep the current account almost balanced.
International reserves stood at $51.2 billion at the end of July. The NBU's July policy-rate hike made hryvnia assets more attractive. In August, term deposits increased by UAH 2.8 billion and the hryvnia government bond portfolio rose by UAH 1.7 billion. Net demand for foreign currency and NBU interventions were close to July levels. Official exchange-rate moves were modest: the hryvnia appreciated 0.3% against the dollar and depreciated 1.2% against the euro, the latter driven by global market trends.
What were the economic results for July and August? The NBU's Macroeconomic and Monetary Review has the detailed answer.
The NBU's review underscores how war-related shocks and inflation are testing Ukraine's economic policy. Rate action and agricultural support are meant to provide ballast, but ongoing fighting and disrupted trade mean the country must rely on stronger domestic demand and continued external assistance to preserve stability.