The Consequences of Climate Change in Ukraine
Experts from Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences (NASU) report that climate change is having tangible impacts on the country, impacts which are being intensified by the ongoing war. They stress that the global warming threshold of 1.5°C has already been exceeded, with temperatures in the Ukrainian region rising more sharply than in many Western European nations. The full-scale Russian invasion is noted as a significant factor that further exacerbates the nation's climate-related risks.
According to expert data, the global temperature anomaly in Ukraine was 1.54 degrees Celsius in 2023, 1.6 degrees in 2024, and 1.55 degrees in 2025. NASU Corresponding Member Natalia Fialko stated:
'In recent years, the threshold value of 1.5 degrees Celsius has already been reached. This is data from leading research centers and the World Meteorological Organization.'
Experts also report that heating seasons in Ukraine have shortened by 20% over the last two decades, highlighting a pressing need to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels.
War's Impact on Ecology and Climate Risks
Oleksandr Sigal, Director of the Institute of Industrial Ecology, emphasized that Austrian data shows a temperature increase of 2.4 degrees in the Carpathian region since 1850. It is projected that by 2050, the average temperature in the Carpathians could rise by an additional 1.4 to 1.9 degrees. He also noted that the season with stable snow cover in the Carpathians has shortened by 8-10 days, significantly affecting winter tourism.
To ensure snow cover under conditions of insufficient natural snowfall requires substantial volumes of water and energy. Producing one cubic meter of artificial snow requires 250-400 liters of water, while covering one hectare of a ski run demands 3-4 thousand cubic meters of water. The energy consumption for snowmaking ranges from 0.3 to 0.7 kilowatts per cubic meter, leading to electricity costs in the millions.
The war has also had a severe negative impact on the environment, causing a substantial increase in CO₂ emissions. From February 2022 to February 2025, additional CO₂ emissions from military actions amounted to 175 million tons, with 77 million tons of CO₂ equivalent recorded in 2025 alone. The total estimated damage related to wartime emissions is $57 billion. In 2022, military activity became the primary source of CO₂ emissions in Ukraine, causing a 23% increase.
Experts underscore the urgent need for measures to mitigate climate risks in Ukraine. These include:
- decarbonizing the economy,
- transitioning to climate-neutral energy sources,
- improving energy efficiency,
- and preserving forests.
Oleksandr Sigal pointed out that
'surrounding countries face similar problems, and the first piece of advice is not to cut down forests in the Carpathians.'Among the opportunities for reducing fossil fuel consumption are modernizing heating networks, installing individual heating substations, and developing biomethane, solar, and wind energy.
Experts identify the core components of the climate crisis as a deficit of drinking water, food insecurity, soil degradation, competition for land, climate migration, and energy vulnerability. Necessary responses to these challenges include adaptive agriculture, international resource management tools, decentralized energy systems, and early warning systems.
The situation in Ukraine, shaped by both war and climate change, demands urgent and comprehensive action to prevent further environmental deterioration. This dual crisis presents a unique challenge for national resilience and recovery. Experts highlight the critical importance of international cooperation and adaptation to new climatic conditions, as the consequences could affect not only Ukraine but the wider region. Developing effective emission reduction strategies and implementing sustainable practices across various sectors has become essential for ensuring environmental stability in the country.