From January 1, 2026, the minimum wage in Ukraine will increase by 9% to 8647 hryvnias. However, in dollar equivalent, Ukrainians will receive even less than in the current year, according to social policy expert Andriy Pavlovskyi.
According to the expert's calculations, the minimum wage will be 'about 189 dollars', which, taking into account the devaluation of the hryvnia, means 'a decrease of 0.3%' compared to 2025.
The author of the article believes that the official increase in the minimum wage does not meet the real needs of Ukrainians. Pavlovskyi emphasizes that the necessary amount to cover basic expenses is significantly higher than the proposed increase.
Forecasts and the real situation
Pavlovskyi points to the discrepancy between official inflation forecasts and the real situation in the country. According to him, the actual inflation may be significantly higher than the projected 10.4%, reaching 15-20%, which makes the increase in the minimum wage insufficient to maintain the purchasing power of Ukrainians.
Government data indicates that the average salary of civil servants in August 2025 was 61.6 thousand hryvnias, which is three times higher than the average indicator in Ukraine. It is important to note that despite the increase in the minimum wage, the real incomes of Ukrainians still significantly lag behind the actual subsistence minimum.
From the previous calculation, it becomes clear that the increase in the minimum wage in 2026 may not address the social needs of Ukrainians due to inflation and the devaluation of the hryvnia, which may affect the real purchasing power of the population.