The National Bank expects that by the end of 2026, Ukraine's economy will grow by 1.8%, while inflation will accelerate to 10%. At the same time, real salaries of Ukrainians this year may increase by more than 12% due to a sharp labor shortage, reports the NBU.
Ukraine's economy has returned to growth
The beginning of the year was difficult due to the destruction of energy infrastructure, electricity shortages, rising fuel prices, and delays in international financing. Consequently, in the first quarter, real GDP contracted.
In the second quarter, the situation improved thanks to the repairs of energy facilities, warm weather, solar generation operations, and increased revenues from international partners.
The NBU forecasts that in 2026, Ukraine will receive a record $87 billion in external support. Funds will be directed, in particular, to social programs, reconstruction, and weapon production.
According to the regulator's baseline forecast, GDP will grow by 1.8% in 2026, by 2.8% in 2027, and by 3% in 2028. The main risk to the forecast remains the course of the war.
Salaries of Ukrainians are expected to rise by more than 12%
One of the main problems of the labor market remains the shortage of personnel. Businesses find it especially challenging to recruit workers for blue-collar jobs, and the skills of some candidates do not match the needs of employers.
Due to competition for personnel, companies are forced to raise wages. If in 2025 real salaries increased by approximately 7% accounting for inflation, then in 2026, the NBU predicts an increase of more than 12%.
The growth of income supports consumer demand, but at the same time creates additional pressure on prices.
In July, the annual inflation rate was 7.7%. By the end of 2026, the NBU expects it to accelerate to 10%. Among the reasons, the regulator cites more expensive electricity and fuel, business expenses on salaries and recovery after attacks, previous devaluation of the hryvnia, and high consumer demand.
In 2027, inflation is predicted to slow down to 6.9%, and in 2028 it should return to the NBU's target of 5%.
To protect savings, the regulator draws attention to hryvnia deposits and government bonds. Bank rates for term deposits currently stand at about 15-17% annually, while the yield on government bonds ranges from 13% to nearly 17%.
It is worth noting that in Ukraine, the minimum wage is twice as low as in Moldova.