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Polish Analyst Warns of Government Collapse in Ukraine: Here’s Why

Експерт з Польщі попереджає про можливі політичні негаразди в Україні: причини та наслідки.

Ukraine’s Public Administration System Under Fire

During a broadcast with political scientist Yuriy Romanenko, Polish analyst Piotr Kulpa voiced serious concerns about the ineffectiveness of Ukraine’s state administration. He argued that the constitutional framework in place before February 24 could trigger an institutional breakdown. According to Kulpa, a nation’s survival hinges on its society’s ability to organize internally, yet Ukraine is experiencing a vacuum of legitimate authority that informal power groups are filling.

Limited Presidential Powers

Kulpa emphasized that the Ukrainian president’s legal authority is largely confined to foreign policy and security matters.

“If Ukraine operates under the Constitution that was in effect on February 24, it is doomed to fail. The country would remain the only one on Earth with no legal executive branch.” - Piotr Kulpa
The expert believes the core issue is that real power rests with entities not recognized by the Constitution—or with organized crime.
“Why don’t Ukraine’s constitutional bodies function? Because actual power lies either with bodies not mentioned in the Constitution or with the mafia.” - Piotr Kulpa

Kulpa also highlighted the severely restricted role of Ukraine’s prime minister. “The Ukrainian prime minister holds no real authority—only the right to open and close meetings and sign the minutes,” the analyst stated. He further noted that Ukraine is the only country in the world where removing a minister requires a parliamentary decision, which hampers the executive branch’s operation.

The expert stressed the urgent need for sweeping reforms to improve the situation. “If we admit that we are less organized than the rest of the world, we must immediately close that gap in organizational and institutional underdevelopment,” he declared. In Kulpa’s view, Ukraine must find ways to strengthen its internal organization to prevent further governance failures.

Kulpa’s warnings underscore the serious challenges Ukraine faces regarding administrative efficiency and the legitimacy of its leadership. The absence of a clear, lawful authority and the constrained powers of key officials threaten the country’s stability, especially amid external pressures. The reforms he advocates could be crucial for rebuilding trust in state institutions and ensuring they can govern effectively.

As Ukraine grapples with its internal governance challenges, the broader implications of its sovereignty remain a pressing concern. Analysts have pointed out that the country's future stability hinges not only on its current administration but also on how it navigates potential threats to its independence after a possible victory. For a deeper understanding of these risks and the measures needed to safeguard Ukraine's sovereignty, read more about the potential challenges ahead in this analysis.