Russia's Mobilization Drive: New Challenges and Strategic Shifts
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that the Kremlin is preparing a fresh wave of mobilization in response to staggering troop casualties. According to him, this could involve at least tens of thousands of additional soldiers. Robert Brovdi, commander of the Security Systems Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, reported that over the past five months, Russian military losses have outpaced the number of newly mobilized troops. From December 2025 to April 2026, Brovdi stated, Russia mobilized and enlisted 148,400 individuals through contracts, yet confirmed drone-related casualties alone during that period reached 156,700.
Economic Strains and Evolving Mobilization Tactics
Economic studies reveal a 20% decline in contract recruitment rates compared to last year, highlighting growing difficulties in attracting new soldiers. In March 2026, the average signing bonus for a military contract in Russia hit a historic high of 1.47 million rubles. Since the start of 2026, payments for deployment to combat zones have increased in 35 Russian regions, indicating that authorities are relying on financial incentives to lure recruits.
Early 2026 saw a rise in Russians receiving mobilization orders during visits to military enlistment offices, suggesting new coercive measures are being employed. In February 2026, the State Duma passed a law allowing foreign nationals suspected of crimes to avoid deportation by signing a contract with the Russian military. Ivan Chuvilyaev, a spokesperson for the 'Idite Lesom' foundation, noted that Putin has yet to sign a decree ending the partial mobilization of 2022. According to him, since January 2026, Russian army losses have exceeded replacements.
Additionally, a law instituting year-round conscription has been enacted, mandating 12 months of military service annually. Putin also signed a law requiring police to conduct preventive work with draft dodgers, signaling tighter control over mobilization. The military registry, which went live in July 2025, has proven ineffective, according to Chuvilyaev. A Putin decree ordering reservists to protect key facilities has been repurposed to deploy troops to Ukraine.
Experts conclude that the current situation in Russia points to a covert mobilization campaign without an official declaration. Ivan Chuvilyaev remarked that
“the pool of replacements has been exhausted,”adding that
“they could empty all the prisons and have an army ready.”Mobilization orders, he said, have become just another tool to pressure individuals into signing contracts. Russia's political leadership has set a goal of expanding its occupation force, indicating the war will continue.
This situation underscores the severe challenges Russia faces in sustaining its war effort. Persistent troop losses and recruitment difficulties are pushing the Kremlin to adopt new mobilization strategies, which could lead to an escalation of the conflict. At the same time, the rise in financial incentives for signing contracts shows that Russian authorities are trying to offset manpower shortages by leveraging economic tools to attract new soldiers.
In light of these developments, it is crucial to understand the broader implications of Russia's ongoing mobilization efforts. Recent warnings from Ukrainian President Zelenskyy suggest a significant escalation, with plans to recruit tens of thousands more troops. For a deeper analysis of this situation and its potential impact on the conflict, see our detailed report on Russia's troop mobilization strategy.