War Game at the Bundeswehr University Highlights NATO Vulnerabilities
A strategic simulation conducted by Franz-Stefan Gady, an expert from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), at Helmut Schmidt University in Hamburg modeled a Russian invasion of Lithuania. The exercise, held in December 2025, resulted in a Russian victory over NATO, achieved by paralyzing Germany’s political leadership. The scenario assumed a ceasefire in Ukraine by summer 2026, followed by an attack on the Baltic states in October of that year. A critical factor enabling Russia’s success was the absence of U.S. intervention during the first 48 hours.
Berlin’s Die Welt released the war game as a podcast. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was asked about its outcomes during a press conference. Gady warns that the most dangerous period could emerge after hostilities in Ukraine cease, likely by late 2026 or 2027. The scenario began with a hypothetical ceasefire in Ukraine in summer 2026, with the game starting in late October of that year.
Game Scenario and Its Implications
In the simulated scenario, following joint Russian-Belarusian military drills, 12,000 Russian troops remained stationed in western Belarus. The operation involved roughly 100,000 Russian soldiers across the broader theater, including an advance strike group from Belarus composed of about 12,000 troops from the 1st Guards Tank Army, reinforced by units of the 76th Guards Air Assault Division. From Kaliningrad, the 11th Army Corps advanced toward Lithuania, while the 20th Guards Combined Arms Army protected the flank from Poland. Additionally, the 6th Combined Arms Army of the Leningrad Military District pinned down NATO forces in Estonia and Latvia.
The operational plan called for strikes through Grodno and Druskininkai northward toward Marijampolė, linking up with the Kaliningrad group within 24 hours. A key condition for success was keeping the U.S. out of the conflict for the first 48 hours. Gady pointed to a signal from U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby at the Munich Security Conference, suggesting Europeans must act independently.
In the event of a counterattack, a nuclear scenario was prepared, involving the activation of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, Kaliningrad, and western Russia.
“For Putin, every problem looks like one that can be solved by war,” Gady notes.He also emphasizes:
“European NATO forces certainly won’t attack without first weakening Russian air defense, which they won’t be able to do in the fall of 2026,” says Franz-Stefan Gady.According to the expert, 'we achieved our goals without that—by paralyzing Germany’s political leadership while the Americans stayed out.'
Gady also remarked, 'forget the sermons about commitment to NATO’s Article 5.' He stressed that 'in the war game, my Russian colleagues and I knew: Germany would likely hesitate. And that was enough for victory.' The three main factors behind Russia’s advantage, he said, include:
- speed
- limited offensive
- holding captured territory through nuclear blackmail
This war game, conducted as part of a research study, underscores NATO’s potential vulnerability in the event of escalating conflict in Europe, especially amid geopolitical tensions between Russia and Western nations. Given that the scenario assumes no U.S. involvement in the initial stages, it raises questions about the readiness of European allies to act independently and their ability to counter a potential Russian aggressor. The results may serve as a critical signal for policymakers and military strategists as they plan future defense strategies in a shifting security landscape.
The recent simulated war game underscores the precarious situation in Eastern Europe, particularly regarding the potential for conflict in the Baltic region. As tensions rise, experts are increasingly concerned about the implications of military maneuvers in areas like Kaliningrad. For a deeper understanding of these developments and their impact on NATO's strategic position, see how the threat of a blockade from NATO is perceived by Russia.