Russia's Oil and Gas Production Forecasts for 2026-2029
Despite ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks, Russia's Ministry of Economy expects oil production to remain stable in 2026. The country is projected to produce around 511 million metric tons of oil and condensate that year, equivalent to roughly 10.26 million barrels per day. By 2027, output is forecast to rise to 516 million metric tons, reaching 525 million metric tons over the following two years. Russia remains the world's second-largest oil producer, with oil and gas revenues accounting for nearly 20% of its federal budget.
In the first quarter of 2026, Russia averaged 9.19 million barrels per day of crude oil, excluding condensate. The Ministry of Economy forecasts oil exports of 237 million metric tons in 2026—or 4.76 million barrels per day—but expects a decline to 227.4 million metric tons in 2027.
Natural Gas Production and LNG Export Outlook
Natural gas production in Russia is also set to increase, reaching 688.4 billion cubic meters in 2026 and climbing to 750.4 billion cubic meters by 2029. Pipeline gas exports are projected at 115.5 billion cubic meters in 2026, rising to 127.5 billion cubic meters by 2029. In 2027, Russia plans to launch a new Far Eastern route to China and expand the capacity of the 'Power of Siberia' pipeline by an additional 6 billion cubic meters per year.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are expected to grow by one-third in 2026 compared to the previous year, reaching 40.3 million metric tons. By 2029, LNG exports are forecast to hit 66.2 million metric tons. However, the initial target of 100 million metric tons per year has been postponed due to sanctions.
Since the start of 2026, Ukraine has conducted over 20 successful attacks on key Russian oil industry facilities, causing economic losses exceeding $7 billion. In April and early May, Ukrainian defense forces struck oil refineries and port infrastructure in Tuapse.
These forecasts from Russia's Ministry of Economy indicate the country's efforts to offset the economic impact of military operations and international sanctions.
Despite active Ukrainian attacks, Russia plans to maintain oil and gas production levels, which are critical to its economy. At the same time, it is seeking to diversify export routes and develop new projects, particularly in liquefied natural gas, suggesting an adaptation to shifting global market conditions.
As the situation unfolds, the Kremlin has suggested that Ukraine's ongoing strikes on oil facilities may inadvertently enhance Russia's financial gains, countering the anticipated impacts of these attacks. For a deeper understanding of this perspective and its potential implications for the Russian economy, read more about the claims made by the Kremlin regarding the effects of Ukraine's oil strikes.