Assessing Russia’s Ability to Sustain Strikes on Kyiv
Valeriy Romanenko, an aviation expert, has weighed in on whether Russia can keep up its current pace of ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv. According to Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Russia manufactures roughly 60 ballistic missiles each month, yet it is currently expending them at a rate that exceeds production. Romanenko warned that this tempo is unsustainable in the long run, as stockpiles are being depleted.
The GUR reports that Russian ballistic missile output has remained unchanged since September of last year. As of mid-April 2023, Ukrainian intelligence estimated Russia’s total ballistic missile reserves at around 200 units. The situation is made worse by the high rate of usage:
- In June, Russia launched 95 ballistic missiles,
- in May, 86,
- in April, 49,
- and in February, 115 missiles.
Russian forces primarily use Iskander-M missiles to strike Kyiv, while S-400 missiles are often employed against frontline cities. On the night of July 6, Russia launched a massive ballistic attack on Kyiv, killing 15 people and wounding dozens more. In the Kyiv region, eight people died and 48 others were injured as a result of that barrage.
Missile Reserves in Critical Condition
Romanenko also highlighted the dire state of Russia’s air defense missile stocks, particularly for systems like the Patriot. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has acknowledged a shortage of missiles for these systems, and Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat stressed the need for a steady supply of interceptor missiles for the Patriot.
'A reserve of 200 missiles is supposed to cover all of Russia. But they are firing them off at a much higher rate than they can produce them,' said Valeriy Romanenko.
The expert emphasized that by using missiles at this pace, the Russians are almost certainly draining their stockpiles. He added that while Russia cannot afford to fully exhaust its reserves—since it plans for a potential conflict with NATO—the situation remains critical.
'Today’s strike was timed for the NATO summit, which is set to take place in the coming days. It’s become a pattern: whenever there’s a meeting of foreign military officials or heads of state, the Russians launch a massive attack,' Romanenko noted.
With Russia’s ballistic missile inventories shrinking and usage remaining high, the threat of renewed strikes on Kyiv could increase, especially around major international events like NATO summits. This points to a tactical pattern by Russia, which seeks to project strength at pivotal moments. However, experts believe that such a strategy may be constrained by resource depletion, which in turn could reshape Russia’s combat approach in the future.
As Russia continues to deplete its stockpiles, the situation regarding its air defense capabilities is becoming increasingly critical. Recent reports indicate that the reserves of S-300 interceptor missiles are also diminishing rapidly, raising concerns about the effectiveness of its defensive systems amidst ongoing missile strikes. Understanding the broader implications of these shortages is essential for comprehending the current military dynamics in the region.