Why Moscow is in a hurry
American geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan, in an interview with Pyotr Kurzin for The Global Gambit, linked Russia's military activity to the demographic crisis. According to him, Moscow's main goal is to buy time while the country still has human reserves. The analyst emphasized that the official demographic statistics of the Russian Federation do not reflect reality and pointed out the historical decline in birth rates.
According to Zeihan, until recently, Russia had the worst demographics in the world — it was about the extinction of the Russian people in this century. The birth rate in the country has been declining for 11 consecutive years. In the first quarter of 2026, about 272 thousand children were born — the lowest figure in 200 years, 6% less than the previous year. In total, 1.178 million children were born in Russia throughout 2025. Furthermore, the expert noted that since 2006, Moscow has ceased honest demographic accounting, and official data has been classified since the spring of 2025.
Zeihan believes that Russia can maintain its status as a significant power for another 10-20 years if it does not regain its geographical footholds. Currently, the Kremlin has a window of opportunity while the population still allows it to maintain positions.
“If you look at the situation through their eyes, this is all a bet on time. In just a few years, there will be too few Russians to even maintain the previous borders, not to mention new ones.”Peter Zeihan
Thus, the demographic situation in Russia remains critical and can directly determine its future policy.
This analysis is essential for understanding why the Kremlin is betting on speed: with each passing year, the demographic resource of the country is decreasing. The consequences of the crisis may affect not only internal stability but also foreign policy. In conditions of a shrinking population, Moscow will find it more challenging to maintain territories and influence, which may push it to seek new allies or revise its geopolitical strategy. In turn, this will change the balance of power in the world and affect international security.