Russia Moves to Mandate State Planning for Fuel
In response to a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks on its oil refineries, the Russian government is preparing to impose mandatory state planning on its fuel sector. This move, aimed at stabilizing production and domestic prices, follows significant damage to refining capacity and could see new regulations governing production, supply, and pricing remain in force until the end of 2026. This represents a significant shift toward centralized economic control in a key industry.
The new framework will compel oil companies to follow state directives concerning:
- production volumes;
- domestic market supply;
- export levels;
- exchange sales.
Agreements between the government and oil firms are already drafted, and the rules could be enacted by a separate government decree. The regulations will cover both gasoline and diesel fuel meeting the 'Euro-5' standard.
Impact of Refinery Attacks
Ukrainian drones struck Russian refineries at least 80 times in 2025, disabling roughly 20% of the country's processing capacity. In 2026, at least 12 plants were targeted, with five major facilities forced into temporary shutdowns. Among the attacked sites were the 'KINEF' refinery in the Leningrad region and 'Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez'. These strikes led to fuel shortages in some regions and triggered sharp price increases at gas stations across Russia.
In 2025 alone, gasoline prices surged by 12.7%, the highest annual jump in 14 years. Although the rate of increase slowed slightly by year's end, price growth remained above 10%—nearly double the official inflation rate. Beyond planning output, the new rules are designed to cap fuel price increases, requiring companies to keep hikes within the official inflation rate. The Ministry of Energy and the Federal Antimonopoly Service will be responsible for enforcing these measures.
The severity of the situation is underscored by the near-total shutdown of the Tuapse oil refinery after a series of drone attacks crippled its port infrastructure.
The introduction of mandatory state planning for fuel highlights the Kremlin's attempt to assert control over a volatile market strained by external threats and internal shortages.
The degradation of Russia's oil refining infrastructure due to these attacks carries broad economic risks, potentially affecting fuel availability for consumers and the overall price level. This development demonstrates how the ongoing conflict continues to directly impact the civilian economy, creating complex policy challenges in the energy sector.
The recent drone strikes have severely impacted the fuel production landscape in Russia, leading to significant disruptions. For instance, the Kirishi Oil Refinery is expected to recover only 60% of its operational capacity a month after being targeted. This highlights the ongoing challenges faced by the Russian fuel sector as it adapts to the aftermath of these attacks.