The autumn-winter rise of the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine has several reasons, including the activity of farmers, budget payments, and the beginning of the heating season. However, the impact of the war on the currency market has recently weakened this trend.
Financial expert Oleksiy Kozyrev explains: 'We are essentially an agrarian country, and in spring, when funds are needed for sowing, and in autumn, when it is time to harvest... farmers enter the currency market.'
Agrarian Cycle
Ukraine, as an agrarian state, depends on the cycles of sowing and harvesting campaigns. Farmers need funds to work in the fields, so they sell currency.
Budget Payments
The end of the budget year in December is accompanied by a large amount of hryvnias entering the economy after the government settles accounts with contractors and suppliers, which also puts pressure on the hryvnia.
Heating Season
The start of the heating season increases demand for currency from energy importers to purchase necessary resources.
The expert believes that the impact of the war on the currency market outweighs traditional seasonal fluctuations; however, technological progress in agriculture has begun to weaken this seasonality. Modern conditions create new challenges for the currency market.
In Ukraine, there is a tendency for the autumn-winter rise of the dollar exchange rate, caused by various factors, including cyclical processes in the agrarian sector, budget payments, and the beginning of the heating season. However, the current situation in Ukraine's currency market, influenced by the impact of the war, creates new challenges for the country's economy.