Growing Alarm Over Iran's Expanding Influence
Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, has raised serious concerns that the United States is heading toward a probable defeat in its confrontation with Iran, particularly regarding control of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Kagan, Iran is gaining leverage across the region while the U.S. appears unable to bring the conflict to a close. He noted that 37 days of American airstrikes failed to force Iranian concessions, and the Trump administration could not reopen the strait to shipping, despite Iran suffering heavy losses.
Iran’s Demands and the Fallout from the Conflict
A key element in this situation is that Iran demanded the U.S. pay war reparations, lift sanctions, and recognize its authority over the Strait of Hormuz. Kagan stated that
“this conflict has exposed America as unreliable and incapable of finishing what it starts. A U.S. defeat is therefore not just possible but likely.”He also emphasized that
“if Iran can impose tolls, if Iran decides who passes through the strait and when—that is colossal power. I think it’s even greater than what nuclear weapons would give them.”
Kagan further stressed that Washington, not Tehran, is more afraid of renewing hostilities. Trump responded with only a limited strike on the source of the attack, while Iran broke the ceasefire by targeting American ships. 'That is not the reaction of a country afraid of more strikes,' Kagan observed. He also warned Israel about Benjamin Netanyahu’s statements that the war is not over, noting that 'this war has the potential to end catastrophically for Israel—precisely because the levers of influence in the region are shifting from the U.S. and Israel to Iran and its allies.'
Kagan described the situation as having triggered a major shift in the geopolitical balance. 'We have effectively dismantled NATO. Trump made it clear he has no interest in supporting European allies—and so they are moving in a different direction.' He also pointed out that Japan and South Korea depend on energy supplies transiting the Persian Gulf, further complicating the picture.
In Kagan’s view, the main beneficiaries of this conflict are China and Russia, which can strengthen their positions in the region. 'Iran has suffered terrible losses, but even so, it may emerge from this war stronger than before it began,' the expert concluded. This indicates that the U.S. is unable to maintain overall peace in the region, and Gulf states will be forced to seek other sources of support.
Kagan’s remarks underscore mounting anxiety over the changing geopolitical balance in the Middle East, where Iran is gaining influence while traditional U.S. allies struggle. The course of events could have serious consequences for international politics, as countries dependent on stability in the Persian Gulf may face new challenges due to Iran’s growing assertiveness and shifting strategic alliances in the region. It could also lead to an expanded role for powers like China and Russia in shaping a new global security architecture.
As the situation escalates, the U.S. seems to be recognizing its vulnerabilities in the ongoing conflict. In light of recent developments, Trump's push for a ceasefire highlights a significant shift in strategy, suggesting that the administration may be conceding ground to Iran's increasing influence in the region.