Assessing the U.S.-Israel Conflict with Iran
James Jeffrey, a former U.S. diplomat, provides an analysis of the three-year conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran. The primary objectives—overthrowing the regime in Tehran and eliminating the nuclear threat—were not accomplished. However, according to Jeffrey, Iran emerged from the conflict weakened, while the U.S. position in the Middle East was strengthened. The network of Iranian proxies, in the author's assessment, lies in ruins, and Israel successfully dismantled Hezbollah.
Key Events of the Conflict
The conflict erupted following a Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023, with the 'Epic Fury' operation commencing in late February. The U.S. State Department described this operation as 'another round in a prolonged international armed conflict with Iran.' According to the Pentagon, from February 28 onward, the U.S. struck over 1,500 Iranian air defense targets and 1,250 drone and ballistic missile storage sites. Iran estimated its losses at $270 billion, underscoring significant military damage to the country.
Despite this, the author notes that Tehran's sole success was its ability to block the Strait of Hormuz, though its effectiveness is gradually declining. The fate of Iran's nuclear program remains the central test. Under a memorandum, Iran agreed to discuss its nuclear program and reduce its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent. Meanwhile, the 2015 nuclear deal stipulated that restrictions would begin to be lifted this year.
Heightened regional tensions also impacted the oil market. Oil prices rose by approximately 50 percent, while U.S. crude oil exports reached 5.6 million barrels per day in May. Saudi Arabia is pumping up to seven million barrels daily via a pipeline bypassing the strait, and the UAE is completing its own route to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz.
Divisions among allies also became apparent. Gulf countries denied the U.S. access to some of their bases for part of its air fleet, while Europe criticized Washington for a lack of consultation. Additionally, the administration will need to fundamentally revamp its approach to working with regional partners. As Jeffrey argues, 'the task now is not an unattainable final victory, but to consolidate gains and ensure Iran remains weaker than it was before 2023.'
In summary, Jeffrey's analysis highlights significant shifts in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East, notably the strengthening of the U.S. position despite failing to achieve its main goals. The future trajectory of Iran's nuclear program and the international community's response remain key factors that could affect regional stability. At the same time, the energy market is undergoing changes that may have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.
As the conflict escalates, the repercussions of military actions are becoming increasingly evident. Notably, Israel’s recent airstrike on Beirut has drawn sharp criticism from international leaders, including former President Trump. This incident highlights the volatile dynamics in the region and further complicates the ongoing tensions. For a deeper insight into the reactions and implications of Israel's military strategy, read more about the controversy surrounding Israel's actions in Beirut.