U.S. Munitions Expenditure in the Conflict with Iran
The United States has depleted a substantial portion of its arsenal during operations against Iran, raising concerns about its ability to protect Taiwan. Since the war began on February 28, 2023, American forces have launched more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles and between 1,500 and 2,000 interceptor missiles from the Thaad, Patriot, and Standard Missile systems. According to analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), these expenditures represent approximately:
- 27% of Tomahawk stockpiles;
- 36% of Jassm reserves;
- one-third of SM-6 missiles;
- nearly half of SM-3 interceptors;
- over two-thirds of Patriot interceptors;
- more than 80% of Thaad interceptors.
Replenishing these stocks could take up to six years. The Pentagon denies any munitions shortfalls, stating the military has everything needed to carry out operations. Caroline Leavitt of the Pentagon emphasized that
“American forces have enough weapons in storage at home and abroad to execute any operation ordered by the commander-in-chief.”Meanwhile, Samuel Paparo noted that
“right now, I don’t see any real damage to our ability to deter China.”
Implications for U.S. Security
However, experts warn that the heavy use of munitions in Iran could hinder Washington’s capacity to respond to threats from China. Kelly Grieco observed that 'the U.S. would have to fight China in a way that could prove far more costly and dangerous for American forces.' Similarly, Mark Cancian stated, 'it will take years to rebuild these reserves.'
The Pentagon plans to ramp up ammunition procurement and redirect interceptors originally intended for European allies to replenish its own stockpiles. Defense contractors like RTX and Lockheed Martin have signed agreements to significantly boost production. RTX is accelerating deliveries of Tomahawks, AMRAAM missiles, and several variants of the Standard Missile. At the same time, China continues to expand its military capabilities, including an intercontinental ballistic missile program and a fleet of military drones.
Against this backdrop, Chinese leader Xi Jinping is preparing for a summit with President Donald Trump in Beijing next month. In March, the U.S. intelligence community assessed that Beijing is unlikely to start a war over Taiwan in 2027, though China aims to establish full sovereign control over the island by 2049. The Pentagon is asking Congress to approve $350 billion for critical munitions in the 2027 fiscal year budget.
The U.S. expenditure of munitions in the Iran conflict underscores the importance of maintaining military stockpiles in the context of global security, especially amid growing threats from China. Replenishing these reserves could take considerable time, raising questions about America’s operational readiness in the event of an escalation around Taiwan. At the same time, the Pentagon’s plans to increase munitions production and redirect resources indicate Washington’s willingness to adapt to new security challenges.
The ongoing military actions in Iran have not only depleted U.S. missile reserves but also raised critical questions about the implications for other geopolitical commitments, such as support for Ukraine. As the U.S. reallocates its defense resources, understanding the consequences for Ukraine's security becomes increasingly important in assessing America's overall military strategy.