Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Comes to an End
The Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START III) officially expired on February 5, 2026, leaving the world's two largest nuclear powers, Russia and the United States, without any formal limits on their deployed nuclear arsenals for the first time in decades. This landmark pact had capped the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads at 1,550 and limited delivery systems to 700. Its expiration also terminates the crucial verification mechanisms, including mutual inspections and data exchanges, that provided transparency and predictability, making it far more difficult to monitor the nuclear forces of both nations.
The primary obstacle to a new agreement was the U.S. insistence on including China in future arms control talks. Russia countered by demanding that the nuclear arsenals of the United Kingdom and France also be factored into any new framework. While the treaty was extended in 2021, Russia announced the suspension of its participation in February 2023. This breakdown is particularly alarming given that Russia and the U.S. collectively possess roughly 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons, a fact that underscores the global stakes of this development.
Nuclear Modernization and Escalating Tensions
In the wake of START III's lapse, both nations are accelerating the modernization of their nuclear forces. Russia has begun upgrading its strategic arsenal, including the development of the Oreshnik hypersonic missile with a range of up to 5,000 kilometers. In October 2025, Moscow also announced the successful test of its Poseidon nuclear-capable underwater drone. Concurrently, the United States has launched a comprehensive and costly nuclear modernization program, which encompasses:
- the construction of new ballistic missile submarines,
- strategic bombers, and
- intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The projected cost for modernizing and maintaining the U.S. nuclear arsenal over the 2025-2034 period is estimated at a staggering $1 trillion. Further signaling a hardening stance, the Russian Federation revised its nuclear doctrine in 2024.
The situation remains precarious, as highlighted by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy:
"The absence of international agreements on nuclear arms control creates new challenges for global security." - Volodymyr Zelenskyy
The expiration of the START III treaty marks a pivotal and dangerous shift in the international security landscape. With both Russia and the United States pursuing major nuclear upgrades in the absence of binding limits or reliable verification, the risk of miscalculation and a renewed arms race has significantly increased. This new era without a foundational arms control framework threatens to undermine decades of relative stability and poses a direct challenge to global security architecture.