Russia Loses Ground in the Turkic World and the South Caucasus
Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) has documented a notable drop in Russian influence across the Turkic world and the South Caucasus. In April, members of the Organization of Turkic States—which includes Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan—openly acknowledged that Moscow no longer serves as a guarantor of stability. The parties agreed to rely solely on their own capabilities, signaling a shift in the region’s geopolitical balance.
Armenia’s Foreign Policy Reorientation
The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route is gaining traction, and SZRU predicts that once it becomes fully operational, Russia’s transport infrastructure will become obsolete. Meanwhile, Armenia has stopped viewing Russia as either a strategic partner or a security guarantor. Yerevan is actively pivoting toward Turkey, reflecting a major change in the country’s foreign policy direction.
The Kremlin is responding to these developments by threatening to raise gas prices for Armenia. Alen Simonyan, the speaker of Armenia’s parliament, noted that the country may begin the process of leaving the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Additionally, Russia’s alcohol and tobacco control agency revoked the license of the Proshyan Brandy Factory, the main distributor of Armenian cognac in the Russian market. In response, Armenia has accelerated its rapprochement with Turkey.
These events underscore a major reorientation in Armenia’s foreign policy and a reduction of Russian influence in the region, which could have serious consequences for the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. As representatives of the Organization of Turkic States stated,
“Moscow is no longer a guarantor of stability.”Armenia has similarly confirmed that 'Armenians no longer see Russia as either a strategic partner or a guarantor of their own security.'
These changes indicate that regional politics are undergoing significant transformation, which could shape future relations between countries. The erosion of Russian influence in the Turkic world and the South Caucasus may open new avenues for cooperation among Turkic states and other nations, such as Turkey, which is actively working to strengthen its position in the region. Such trends could prompt a reassessment of security strategies not only for Armenia but also for its neighboring states.
As the dynamics in the South Caucasus shift, it's crucial to understand Russia's evolving strategies in the region. This is particularly evident in how Moscow is attempting to leverage religious institutions for influence, a tactic that bears resemblance to its actions in Ukraine. For a deeper insight into these developments and their implications, explore how the Armenian Church is being utilized as a tool of influence.