Milk production in Ukraine: Situation analysis for November 2025
In November 2025, milk production in Ukraine decreased by 11% compared to October. Overall, the country produced 507 thousand tons of milk, while the industrial sector demonstrated slight growth, producing 266 thousand tons of milk, which is 0.5% more than in the previous month. However, household farms suffered significant losses, with yields dropping by 21% compared to October and last year. The industrial sector occupies 52% of the milk market, while household farms provide 48%.
The situation has particularly negatively affected regions, as 55% of the raw materials are supplied by enterprises from five regions:
- Poltava
- Cherkasy
- Khmelnytskyi
- Vinnytsia
- Chernivtsi
At the same time, Zakarpattia showed the highest production growth over 11 months of 2025, reaching an increase of 36%.
Forecasts for 2026 and further prospects
Forecasts for 2026 indicate possible closures of farms and a further reduction in total production to 6.8 million tons. Considering current trends, enterprises with a herd of less than 400 cows risk disappearing from the market.
As noted by Georgiy Kukhaleyshvili, 'production volumes are declining primarily due to the subsistence sector. If by 2030 farmers do not unite into cooperatives, their milk will simply stop being delivered for processing.'
In the coming years, changes are expected in the milk market: in 2027, global demand will begin to exceed supply, which may lead to a market recovery. In 2028, a shortage of quality raw materials is forecasted, and in 2029-2030, the European Union may enter into a structural milk deficit. Thus, the Ukrainian dairy sector faces serious challenges that will require urgent measures to stabilize production.
The situation in the milk market in Ukraine highlights the importance of adapting small and medium-sized farms to new economic conditions. Given the significant reduction in production in the subsistence sector, cooperation may become a key factor in ensuring stability and competitiveness. At the same time, global trends indicate a possible recovery in demand for dairy products, which opens new opportunities for Ukrainian producers if they can adapt to changing market conditions.