Almost 400 thousand Ukrainians will be abroad in 2025-2026
According to forecasts, about 400 thousand people plan to leave Ukraine during 2025-2026, and only 30% of them may return. Even after the war ends, a new wave of emigration may be expected, posing a challenge for the country to attract foreign workers for reconstruction. This was reported by the publication 'Glavcom', referring to the Office of Migration Policy.
«According to our estimates, only 30% of Ukrainians abroad may return. After the wars end, we may observe low economic growth, which will trigger a new wave of migration from Ukraine. This may potentially concern up to 2 million Ukrainians. This means that foreign investments will be necessary for restoring infrastructure and enterprises, however, the main question is – who will work physically? We are already witnessing a labor shortage», – stated the head of the Office of Migration Policy Vasyl Voskoboynyk.
The constant outflow of migrants and their slow return will lead to a labor shortage and uneven distribution of labor depending on the type of activity and region. This may hinder economic recovery, lead to faster wage growth than productivity, and increase inflationary pressure.
Ukrainians abroad: impact on the economy and return issues
European countries are starting to actively retain Ukrainian workers to support their own economies. However, this may lead to an even greater labor shortage in Ukraine, reducing domestic consumption and negatively impacting GDP and inflation.
Ukrainians are actively working abroad, paying taxes, and contributing to the growth of the economies of the countries that have accepted them. For example, in 2024, the contribution of Ukrainians to Poland's GDP growth was 2.7%. However, their salaries abroad are on average one third lower than those of local workers. Nevertheless, countries like the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland receive more taxes from Ukrainians than they spend on supporting them.
Despite the fact that Ukrainians are actively migrating for employment abroad, their contribution to the economies of host countries is significant. However, this may lead to a labor shortage in Ukraine and accelerate inflationary pressure due to reduced domestic consumption.