Iran’s New Governance Model
Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran has seen the rise of a new governance model where military figures now dominate decisions on security, warfare, and diplomacy. The decision-making system has shifted to a collective approach, heavily influenced by commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Khamenei’s son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, holds the title of leader but does not exercise sole authority.
Mojtaba Khamenei was seriously wounded in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on his father’s residence in late February. As a result, the military has taken the lead in negotiations with Washington, sidelining the foreign minister. Generals from the Revolutionary Guard now oversee military operations and have assumed key foreign policy functions. The military has been the driving force behind Iran’s strategy in conflicts with the U.S. and Israel, including attacks, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and decisions on temporary ceasefires.
Military Influence on Policy
Iran’s president and government have been excluded from strategic decision-making, signaling the marginalization of civilian institutions and a decline in clerical influence. Mojtaba Khamenei, who relies on the military that brought him to power, finds his role in governing severely limited. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has stated he is not setting deadlines for ending the war with Iran, highlighting the complexity of the international situation surrounding the country.
The situation in Iran after Ali Khamenei’s death reveals a major shift in power and governance, with the military now holding a dominant role in decision-making. This could reshape the country’s foreign policy and its relations with other nations, particularly the U.S. and Israel. Amid rising tensions and the new leader’s dependence on the military, future developments in Iran may have serious implications for regional stability.
The recent developments in Iran's political landscape raise questions about the rapid changes in governance following Khamenei's passing. Understanding how the regime has evolved in just a month can provide crucial insights into the implications for both domestic policies and international relations, particularly with the U.S. and Israel.