ICU analysts surprised with the forecast: what will the dollar exchange rate be in 2025-2026

The National Bank of Ukraine is preparing to ensure the stability of the hryvnia in the next two years due to the sufficient amount of foreign currency reserves and support from international partners, including the International Monetary Fund.

Expert Oleksandr Martynenko, who heads the corporate analysis department of the ICU group, expressed his opinion during the presentation of the updated macroeconomic forecast.

According to him, the strong hryvnia policy consistently implemented by the NBU is likely to continue at least until the end of 2026. To support the foreign exchange balance in 2025-2026, the regulator will need up to 80 billion dollars, but such resources will be available.

The expert emphasized that the IMF supports the strong hryvnia policy, which helps maintain the current exchange rate. The company has updated the exchange rate forecast: by the end of 2025, the rate is expected to be at 42.6 hryvnias per dollar, which is lower than the previous estimate. It is projected that in 2026 the hryvnia will weaken by another 5%.

Let us also remind you about the dollar and euro exchange rates in banks: Privat, Oschad, and PUMB have shown currency prices.

During the presentation of the updated macroeconomic forecast, the expert noted that with the support of international partners, the National Bank of Ukraine can maintain the stability of the hryvnia over the next two years. The IMF supports the strong hryvnia policy, which affects the exchange rate. It is forecasted that the hryvnia may weaken by 5% in 2026.