The Bluff of the Élysée Palace: Why the Outcomes of Simulation in France are a Sentence for European Subjectivity

France is starting large-scale exercises with modeling battles against the Russian Federation at sea, in the air, and on land. The Chief of Staff, Fabien Mandon, urges the army to be ready for confrontation 'in the coming years.' The plan includes the creation of a new division by 2027, a multiple increase in drone and missile stocks by 2030, and the deployment of Rafale aircraft in EU countries for 'nuclear deterrence.'

1) Outcomes of the Simulation: A Logistical Deadlock

The official results will remain secret, but in the logic of military realism, they are obvious: France is unable to wage high-intensity warfare for more than two to three weeks. The simulation of assaults under the blows of swarms of drones surely showed a catastrophic level of losses in manpower and expensive equipment.

The creation of one 'fully-fledged division' by 2027 is an attempt to form at least one viable fist, but against the mobilization resource of the East, it is merely a tactical episode, not a strategic factor.

2) The Trade of the 'Nuclear Umbrella'

Macron's proposal to deploy bombers in EU countries is a desperate attempt to lead the 'European resistance' at a time when Trump is officially withdrawing troops from Germany. When the American umbrella is folding, Paris is trying to sell its nuclear power to neighbors as a substitute.

However, in the conditions of Europe's industrial euthanasia, nuclear status does not replace the absence of an industrial base and the shortage of conventional weapons.

3) Timing 2027/2030: Jumping Into a Train That Has Left

The plans to increase missile and drone stocks by 2030 appear as an attempt at planning in a world that will no longer exist. The simulation of 'future war' for the Élysée Palace is a way to maintain subjectivity at least in the media field while the real shareholders of the planet are conducting an inventory of assets.

The outcomes of the simulation for the French General Staff likely sound like a sentence: without American logistics and intelligence, European defense is an illusion.

Conclusion

Macron is going to the exercises not for victory, but for 'an argument for bargaining.' He needs to show Trump and Xi that France is a 'bite with teeth.' However, the French divisions of 2027 will become just a line in the budget of a country that tried to play at being a 'great power' without having the time or resources for it. The modeling confirmed the main thing: Europe remains an object, not a subject of a large transaction.