Dollar Rises Again: What to Expect from the Hryvnia Exchange Rate in December and 2026

Dollar Rises Again: What to Expect from the Hryvnia Exchange Rate in December and 2026

The dollar exchange rate in Ukraine continues to rise, driven by increased demand for currency due to energy problems in the country. According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), on November 11, 2023, the official dollar rate was 41.96 UAH, and by November 28, 2023, it had reached 42.19 UAH. For comparison, at the beginning of October 2023, the dollar cost 41.14 UAH. This indicates an increase in the exchange rate against a backdrop of pessimistic expectations regarding the heating season and increasing power outages.

It is noted that Ukraine's gold and foreign exchange reserves reached 49.5 billion dollars at the beginning of November 2023. However, despite the significant reserve volume, in December 2023, the NBU will have to spend a record 5.3 billion dollars on currency interventions to support the hryvnia. This indicates that the situation in the currency market remains under control, although experts point to the rise in the dollar rate as an important signal.

Forecasts for the Hryvnia Exchange Rate

Forecasts for the hryvnia exchange rate for December 2023 vary:

• Expert Mamedov expects the dollar rate to fluctuate between 42-43.5 UAH;
• Mustafaeva forecasts 42-43 UAH per dollar;
• Hetman presents a forecast of 42.2 UAH;
• Parashchiy believes the rate could reach 43-44 UAH per dollar.

In the context of rising demand for currency and energy problems, forecasts for the hryvnia exchange rate remain quite pessimistic.

Experts emphasize that the currency market is still holding up, which is a positive signal for the economy. - Dilyara Mustafaeva

Dilyara Mustafaeva noted that the situation remains controlled, but in light of current challenges, it is important to be prepared for possible changes in the exchange rate in the future. Thus, Ukrainians can expect further fluctuations in the hryvnia rate in December and in the coming years, including in 2026.

The rise in the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine reflects not only economic problems related to energy challenges but also the overall state of the country's financial system. The NBU's spending on currency interventions indicates the need to support the national currency, which may impact inflation and the purchasing power of the population. Experts point out the importance of monitoring the situation, as the stability of the hryvnia is crucial for the country's economic development in the coming years.