Euro will break the mark of 50: expert named the factor that will weaken the hryvnia in July

According to hvylya.net: The Ukrainian currency market has entered a period of turbulence. The euro exchange rate is quickly approaching the level of 50 hryvnias, and July 2025 is expected to be one of the most tense periods for the national currency. Internal and external factors affecting the currency market are creating conditions for further weakening of the hryvnia.

Ultimately, the additional hryvnia liquidity that will enter the market will still impact the behavior of our currency market - both cash and cashless.

Internal challenges: war becomes a currency factor

The main reason for the weakening of the hryvnia is the military conflict and the related budget expenditures. To finance the army and provide for the budget, the government is increasing spending by more than 400 billion hryvnias, which contributes to the depreciation of the national currency.

Changes in the structure of international assistance also impact the currency market, increasing support in euros and positively affecting foreign exchange reserves.

Global risks: from Trump's policies to oil shocks

International factors add uncertainty to the Ukrainian currency market. Significant risks in July are associated with decisions from the Trump administration, the European Central Bank, and the US Federal Reserve. Additionally, potential escalation of conflict in the Middle East could affect oil prices and the currency market.

Specific forecasts: euro intends to stay above 50 hryvnias

Expert Alexey Kozyrev believes that the euro will remain a major player in the currency market in the coming months. The projected exchange rates are as follows:

Interbank market:

• US Dollar: 41.35 - 42.25 UAH
• Euro: 47.63 - 50.62 UAH (working corridor: 47.90 - 50.20 UAH)

Cash market (in banks):

• US Dollar: 41.20 - 42.50 UAH
• Euro: 47.50 - 50.65 UAH

Cash market (in exchange offices):

• US Dollar: 41.30 - 42.40 UAH
• Euro: 47.60 - 50.55 UAH

It is possible to expect that the euro, crossing the psychological threshold of 50 hryvnias, will significantly affect the currency market, supporting its fluctuations.