Indian Oasis in Abu Dhabi. Who will quench the thirst?

This week (February 4–5), Abu Dhabi becomes the epicenter of world politics. While official delegations pack their bags, Donald Trump has already turned the negotiation table with one phone call to New Delhi.

Death of the "oil wallet" of the Russian Federation

Trump officially confirmed: India agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil. This is a disaster for Moscow, as India accounted for 38% of all maritime exports from the Russian Federation.

• Cost of the issue: Trump lowered tariffs for India from 25% to 18%, effectively exchanging the "tax on friendship with the Russian Federation" for American and Venezuelan oil.

• Gas trap: China, remaining with the Russian Federation, is not a salvation. Through the "Power of Siberia", gas is sold at $250 per 1000 cubic meters, while the European market (TTF) balances around $450–500. The Russian Federation feeds Beijing with a 30% discount, operating on the verge of profitability.

Why is everyone on edge?

In Abu Dhabi, each side has its own reason to hurry. Time is the most expensive resource in these negotiations.

• USA (Trump): He needs a "quick peace" to deflate the AI bubble and save Oracle, whose $110 billion debts are dragging the market down. Trump wants to secure a victory while his "oil ultimatums" are still effective.

• Russia (Dmitriev): Without Indian money, the military budget will start to run dry by summer. Dmitriev needs to lift sanctions now, before India has completely reconfigured its refineries for Venezuelan oil.

• Ukraine (Budanov/Umerov): The urgency is due to the situation at the front and the risk of complete aid cessation from the USA. Ukraine needs to extract maximum guarantees while Trump is in the "peacekeeper-liquidator" phase.

Why Indian oil won't save the EU?

Many hope that Indian refineries will continue to produce diesel from Russian oil for Europe. Forget it.

• Logistical gap: Trump is cutting off supplies of crude oil from the Russian Federation to India. Without raw materials, there is no "Indian diesel" for Brussels.

• American protectionism: Trump is not giving Modi discounts on tariffs so that India feeds Europe with cheap fuel. The entire volume will go to the domestic markets of India and the USA.

• Venezuelan factor: Oil from Caracas, controlled by Trump, is more complex to refine. It will not save the EU, as most European refineries are designed for light "Urals", not heavy "Merey".

On February 4, Abu Dhabi will be the point where the "food chain" will either close on Trump's terms or the world will plunge into a harsher phase of economic war.