For the Second Year Running, China May Skip a Major Security Summit

China’s Defense Minister Absent from Shangri-La Dialogue Again

According to Главком: Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun is expected to miss the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore for the second consecutive year. Instead, Beijing plans to send a delegation from the National Defense University of the People’s Liberation Army. No official reason has been given for Dong’s absence, and a final decision on his attendance has not yet been made. The International Institute for Strategic Studies, which organizes the forum, has not confirmed that China will forgo high-level participation.

U.S.-China Military Talks at Risk

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to attend the forum; he recently visited China as part of President Donald Trump’s delegation. Without China’s defense minister present, direct military talks between the United States and China will be impossible. The main sources of friction between the two nations remain unchanged:

• Taiwan
• The situation in the South China Sea

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has warned Trump that the Taiwan issue could lead to a direct conflict.

The last face-to-face meeting between the U.S. and Chinese defense chiefs took place at the forum in 2024. Meanwhile, China is promoting its own security forum, the Xiangshan Forum. Taiwan has reported the second Chinese combat patrol near the island within a week, with Beijing sending 21 aircraft-including J-16 fighters and drones-into the area. In response, Taiwan scrambled fighter jets and deployed naval vessels to monitor the activity.

By potentially downgrading its participation in the forum, China signals rising regional tensions. The United States and China are losing a key channel for military dialogue, even as the Singapore forum remains a critical platform for discussing pressing international security issues. Amid escalating bilateral strains, the absence of high-level talks could further inflame conflicts, particularly over Taiwan and the South China Sea.

As the absence of China's Defense Minister raises concerns over military dialogue, it's crucial to understand Beijing's broader strategic maneuvers. Recent analyses suggest that China is evaluating U.S. vulnerabilities in the Iran conflict, potentially preparing for future confrontations. This shift in focus may further complicate the already tense relations between the two powers.