When gas and heating prices may rise: NBU explains its tariff forecast

The National Bank assumes a gradual review of some utility tariffs for the population starting in 2028. Meanwhile, the stability of gas and heating prices throughout 2027 remains a technical assumption included in the NBU inflation forecast. This was reported by Today.ua.

Utility tariffs: what the NBU predicts for 2027-2028

In the October Inflation Report, the regulator took into account the need to restore the damaged energy system and reduce financial imbalances in the sector. This is connected to the technical assumption about the review of electricity prices for household consumers.

For other utility services that are subject to the moratorium, the forecast entails a gradual approach of tariffs to an economically grounded level starting from 2028. However, the prices for natural gas and heating for the population remain unchanged in the calculations for 2027.

This is not a confirmed schedule for tariff increases. The National Bank does not set utility prices and has no information about specific future decisions regarding their review. The mentioned deadlines are required for building a macroeconomic forecast.

It is also important to distinguish between the regulator's forecast and the existing annual gas tariffs. The assumption of price stability throughout 2027 does not, by itself, extend the validity of any specific tariff plan and does not replace the corresponding decisions.

Tariff increases: why an earlier review is possible

Prolonged maintenance of tariffs below an economically justified level increases the need for energy and heating supply enterprises for financial support. Given the limited budget resources, this complicates repairs and the restoration of infrastructure after Russian strikes.

Therefore, the NBU allows the risk of an earlier or broader tariff review than what is provided by the basic assumptions. However, this does not mean that an increase has already been scheduled for 2027. Specific dates and sizes of possible changes remain uncertain.

For households, maintaining tariffs restrains the growth of mandatory expenses. Conversely, their increase will amplify inflationary pressure as it will directly raise the cost of utility services.

Additionally, prices are influenced by damage to energy, production, and transportation facilities. Businesses are spending more on backup power, production, and delivery of products, and some of these costs may be factored into the final cost of goods.

Thus, announcements about future reviews do not automatically change the existing tariffs for electricity and gas. For consumers, the basis for new charges must be official decisions with specified prices and the dates of their effect.