Three Reasons Putin Won't Use Nuclear Weapons, According to Kuleba

Dmytro Kuleba's Statement on Nuclear Weapons

According to Главком: Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has stated that the question of Russia using nuclear weapons against Ukraine could only arise if the Russian front collapses and Vladimir Putin's regime faces a genuine threat. According to Kuleba, this issue will emerge at the moment when Putin decides that his power is at serious risk. He outlined three main arguments explaining why the likelihood of a nuclear strike remains low.

Kuleba's Arguments

• First argument: There is no guarantee that a nuclear attack would force Ukraine to surrender. Kuleba emphasized that this point is critical for assessing the Kremlin's potential actions.
• Second argument: China's stance. The former minister believes Beijing would use its leverage over Russia to prevent the use of nuclear weapons. Kuleba noted that China does not want the world to witness another nuclear strike, as it could set a dangerous precedent.
• Third argument: The likely response from U.S. President Donald Trump. The ex-minister thinks that, although Trump is not a strong supporter of Ukraine, he could not ignore the use of nuclear weapons by a nuclear superpower. Kuleba added that by deploying nuclear arms, Putin would actually increase his chances of strengthening his position relative to Europe and America.

'The nuclear question will arise when the collapse of the Russian front in Ukraine begins, including in Crimea, and when Putin decides for himself that there is a real threat to his regime. Then the question will be: to strike with nukes or not.' - Dmytro Kuleba

Kuleba's remarks underscore the importance of strategic calculations in the context of potential nuclear escalation. He highlights how international politics and the actions of major powers like China and the United States could significantly influence Kremlin decision-making. Given the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, these factors may prove decisive in preventing the war from spiraling into a catastrophic nuclear confrontation.

In light of Kuleba's insights on the potential use of nuclear weapons, it's crucial to consider the broader implications of Putin's current military strategies. As highlighted by General Ryan, the narrative surrounding Putin's leadership is shifting, affecting both his domestic and international standing. Understanding these dynamics can provide further context to Kuleba's arguments and the evolving situation in Ukraine.