Ukrainian Currency Outlook: Dollar Holds Near 44 Hryvnias, Euro Around 51

Ukraine's Foreign Exchange Forecast

According to ХВИЛЯ: Moderate fluctuations are expected on Ukraine's currency market for the week of April 13-19. On the interbank market, the US dollar is projected to trade near 44 hryvnias, while the euro is forecast to be around 51 hryvnias. The cash exchange rate for the dollar is anticipated to range between 43.5 and 44.5 hryvnias, with the euro potentially costing between 50.5 and 52 hryvnias.

Analysis suggests daily exchange rate movements at currency exchange booths will not exceed 30 kopiykas. The gap between the cash rate and the interbank rate is expected to narrow to 10-15 kopiykas. Experts believe demand will continue to outstrip supply on the interbank market, though this imbalance is forecast to remain within acceptable limits. The Ukrainian hryvnia's stability is closely tied to the National Bank's policies and the country's ongoing economic adjustments.

Demand is anticipated to exceed supply by approximately 10-15%. Taras Lesovyi

Despite the overall stability, risks from external factors persist. Should tensions surrounding Iran escalate, the euro could depreciate by 0.85 to 0.90 hryvnias. Furthermore, a decision expected from the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on April 30th could impact the profitability of hryvnia deposits, potentially raising their rates by 0.5 to 1 percentage point in May.

Impact of External Factors

In summary, the currency market forecast points to moderate stability, yet carries risks that could affect exchange rates in the short term.

The situation on Ukraine's foreign exchange market remains under control; however, the influence of external factors may lead to unforeseen changes. Investors and market participants should be prepared for potential volatility linked to the international political climate, as well as for NBUs decisions, which could significantly impact financial stability. All of this makes the currency market a key indicator of the country's broader economic situation.

In light of the recent fluctuations in the currency market, it's essential to consider how these changes relate to the latest updates from the National Bank. For instance, the central bank's recent decision on March 23, 2026, set the exchange rates at USD 43.82 and EUR 50.67, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the financial landscape. To gain further insights into how these rates are influencing the market, you can read more about the central bank's recent adjustments here.