Most refugees will not return to Ukraine without security guarantees: survey data

Willingness of Ukrainian refugees to return home

According to glavcom.ua: Ukrainian refugees are considering the possibility of returning to their homeland based on three key factors: the end of the war, the presence of security guarantees, and the implementation of political reforms. The results of a survey conducted among Ukrainians in Europe by the ifo Institute indicate this.

Nearly every second Ukrainian refugee expressed a desire to return if Ukraine restores its borders from 1991, joins NATO, and has a chance to join the EU. At the same time, labor market conditions and the fight against corruption are important aspects for most respondents.

'Sovereignty over the entire territory of the country and reliable security guarantees are the main conditions for the return of Ukrainian refugees. Economic factors have less impact on their willingness to return,' emphasized researcher of the ifo Institute Ivonne Gising.

The absence of even one of the conditions hinders refugees' willingness to return. Improvement in labor market conditions is not the most important factor for many. The likelihood of return increases with the restoration of borders, NATO membership, and the liberation of occupied territories.

Ukrainians in Poland

The Polish parliament has passed a new law concerning Ukrainian refugees, which provides for their legal stay in the country until March 4, 2026. Upon returning to Ukraine, refugees will receive support from the state in the form of housing and social assistance.

The return of Ukrainians from Poland requires detailed preparation, especially for vulnerable categories of citizens, such as the elderly, persons with disabilities, and single mothers with young children.

A survey conducted among Ukrainian refugees in Europe shows that many people are ready to return to their homeland on the condition of ending the war, having security guarantees, and implementing political reforms. However, important economic and social aspects also influence their decision. At the same time, Ukrainian refugees in Poland will receive support when returning to Ukraine, but it is necessary to consider the characteristics and needs of different groups of the population.