Poll Reveals Ukrainian Public's Shifting Stance on Peace: Majority Backs Referendum, 40% Open to Territorial Concessions

Ukrainian Public Opinion on Peace Talks Shows Signs of Evolution

According to Главком: A recent survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) indicates a significant evolution in Ukrainian public opinion regarding the ongoing war. While 55% of Ukrainians support holding a referendum on any potential peace agreement, 40% of respondents expressed a willingness to accept territorial concessions to achieve peace. These figures highlight a complex and shifting public mood as the conflict continues.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated his intention to put any final peace treaty to a nationwide referendum. Western media had speculated that February 24th could be a date for announcing election and referendum plans, but Zelenskyy has denied setting any specific timeline. The next round of talks involving Ukrainian, American, and Russian delegations is scheduled for February 17-18 in Geneva, which may influence future decisions.

Public Sentiment and Readiness for Compromise

The KIIS study found that among those with a firm opinion, two-thirds are ready to support a referendum, though 32% remain opposed. The public's willingness to endure the hardships of war has remained stable since early January, with only 5% citing a lack of heat and electricity as the most difficult factor.

According to KIIS, 70% of Ukrainians would agree to a ceasefire along the current line of contact. Notably, the share of citizens open to territorial concessions has risen from just 10% in 2022 to 40% today, suggesting a gradual shift in views on potential compromises to end the conflict. Sociologist Volodymyr Paniotto noted that a majority would be dissatisfied if a peace deal were adopted without a public vote.

Paniotto also pointed out that of the 6 million Ukrainian citizens who were in Europe, two-thirds planned to obtain citizenship in their host countries. Currently, only 25% of Ukrainians want Zelenskyy to remain president after the war, despite him enjoying a 60% trust rating. It is also worth noting that pro-Russian parties have the potential to gain between 10% and 15% in parliamentary elections.

The KIIS research outlines the conditions Ukrainians define for security guarantees:

• Legally binding commitments for real protection in case of a renewed Russian attack (25%)
• The deployment of Western troops in Ukraine (20%)
• Providing Ukraine with the necessary weapons (20%)

Volodymyr Paniotto emphasized that any elections would likely reduce the level of societal integration, which could have consequences for national unity during wartime. This evolving public opinion presents a complex backdrop for the country's leadership as they navigate negotiations. The growing openness to concessions reflects a desire for stability but also poses challenges for maintaining a unified national position.

The poll results reflect a nuanced change in Ukrainian perspectives on potential compromises within the context of peace talks. The increase in those willing to consider territorial concessions may signal a search for paths to stability and peace, while simultaneously raising questions about national unity and support for the government. Consequently, the upcoming negotiations between the parties may prove decisive in shaping a final plan of action that can secure public support.