Sharp Turn of the Currency Market: What to Expect from Euro and Dollar in Early July

According to hvylya.net: The Ukrainian currency market is expecting a tense period from June 27 to July 2, 2025. This is related to international geopolitics, the consequences of the NATO summit, internal budget processes, and an increase in demand for foreign currency, which will create pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate. The National Bank will have to actively intervene in the market to stabilize the situation.

External Challenges and Influencing Factors

In this context, the key international factors that will affect the exchange rate will be the consequences of the war in the Middle East and the behavior of the euro/dollar. According to experts, rising oil prices and the fall of the euro may positively or negatively affect the hryvnia exchange rate due to increased demand for foreign currency by Ukrainian companies and the population.

Internal Influencing Factors

The end of the month, quarter, and half-year is another factor that increases pressure on the hryvnia due to large volumes of hryvnia liquidity in the market. The National Bank has significant reserves and will have to spend them to support the hryvnia exchange rate in the context of negative dynamics.

Exchange Rate Forecast for June 27 - July 2

• EUR/USD Pair: corridor from 1.145 to 1.171.

• Interbank Market:

  • US Dollar: 41.35 - 41.85 UAH/$.

  • Euro: 47.34 - 49.01 UAH/€ (with a realistic working corridor of 47.90 - 48.80 UAH/€).

• Cash Market:

  • Dollar in Banks: 41.20 - 42.25 UAH/$.

  • Dollar in Forex Exchange Companies: 41.35 - 42.10 UAH/$.

  • Euro in Banks: 47.30 - 49.10 UAH/€.

  • Euro in Forex Exchange Companies: 47.80 - 49.00 UAH/€.

The next week is forecasted to be volatile for the currency market. The stability of the exchange rate will depend on the actions of the National Bank of Ukraine and the international situation.

This forecast for the Ukrainian currency market for the next week anticipates a tense period. The guiding factor is the actions of the National Bank of Ukraine and the international situation.