Russia has no mechanism for power transfer after Putin

Analysis of the Political Situation in Russia

According to ХВИЛЯ: In an article for Foreign Affairs, Julian Waller analyzes the lack of a power transfer mechanism in Russia, the aging of the top leadership, three possible scenarios after Vladimir Putin, historical parallels, and potential successors among officials and security officers. At the moment, Putin is 73 years old, which increases the likelihood of a change of power in the near future.

According to the constitution of the Russian Federation, in the event of a vacancy in the presidency, the prime minister becomes the acting president. The current prime minister is Mikhail Mishustin, who is 60 years old. Presidential elections in the Russian Federation must be held within three months after the vacancy. Currently, the top leadership of the country is predominantly composed of elderly individuals. Alexander Bortnikov, head of the FSB, is 74 years old, Sergei Naryshkin, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, is 71 years old, Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Investigative Committee, is 72 years old, and Viktor Zolotov, head of the Rosgvardiya, is also 72 years old. Sergey Shoigu, head of the Security Council, and Valery Gerasimov, head of the General Staff, are 71 and 70 years old, respectively.

Possible Scenarios and Potential Successors

Waller points out three possible scenarios for the further development of events in Russia:

• hasty power transfer;
• chaotic elite struggle;
• further degradation under the leadership of gerontocracy.

“A specter is haunting Russia-the specter of the power transit,” notes Julian Waller.

It is also emphasized that those who consider themselves in the best position to manage the post-Putin future will face pressure from those who have waited too long in the wings but have not acquired the skills to govern the country.

Among the potential candidates who may aspire to leadership after Putin are:

• Alexey Dyumin, secretary of the State Council, a former bodyguard of Putin, who is 53;
• Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the State Duma, aged 62;
• Mikhail Mishustin-60 years old;
• Sergey Kiriyenko, first deputy head of the administration, who is 64.

It is important to note that some of these individuals, such as the son of Nikolai Patrushev and the son of Yuri Kovalchuk, received positions without serious preparation.

In the history of Russia, there are examples of controlled power transit, such as the transfer of power by Heydar Aliyev's son in Azerbaijan and the controlled transition conducted by Nursultan Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan in 2019. After Stalin's death, Georgy Malenkov became the formal successor, but his power lasted only a short time, as Lavrentiy Beria was arrested four months later and shot, while Nikita Khrushchev ultimately took control until 1957.

“Instead of clarity and stability, the future of Russian politics will reflect the consequences of the seemingly immortal regime constructed by Putin,” notes Julian Waller.

The situation in Russia regarding the power transfer after Putin raises concerns both within the country and beyond its borders. The lack of a clear power transfer mechanism may lead to political instability and struggles for influence among elites, which, in the historical context, has been accompanied by significant upheavals. Therefore, it is important to observe future developments, as these may significantly impact both domestic and foreign policy in Russia.

In the context of possible changes in Russian politics, it is also important to pay attention to experts' opinions regarding the stability of Putin's regime. They emphasize that even amid the aging elite, the regime may maintain its power due to internal control mechanisms. More on this can be read in the article by a security expert.