Ongoing Ukrainian Strikes Are Driving Russia to Decommission Wells and Shutter Entire Oilfields

Russia’s Oil Market Is Deteriorating

According to ХВИЛЯ: Mikhail Krutikhin, a Russian oil and gas market expert, says the country now faces a critical situation in its oil sector. On Yuri Romanenko’s YouTube channel, Krutikhin argued that the impact of Ukrainian strikes is no longer confined to exports and refining: crude extraction is also falling, and Russia is unlikely to return to previous output levels. For observers of global energy markets, this signals that damage to Russian supply may become longer-lasting.

For context on the scale of the problem, the average Russian well produces less than 9 tonnes of crude per day. Russia is currently missing about 1 million barrels per day against its OPEC+ quota, equivalent to roughly 50 million tonnes a year. In July, refining volumes dropped to their lowest since 2002, at just about 3.6 million barrels per day - about a third below the usual figure. The country’s spare production capacity is estimated at 620,000 barrels.

Outlook and Repercussions

Looking ahead, analysts expect further contraction. By the middle of 2027, output could fall to 300–350 million tonnes, rather than the planned 540 million. By 2050, production may stand at only 172–173 million tonnes. According to the forecasts, China would end up as the only supplier of fuel to Russia’s regions.

Russian oil companies are being forced to shut down entire fields and decommission wells - not simply mothball them, but liquidate them permanently. Ukrainian strikes will reduce not only exports and refining, but also oil production itself.

Mikhail Krutikhin

Analysts and industry specialists are alarmed by these prospects, as the consequences for Russia’s economy could be severe. Oil is one of the country’s main revenue sources, and declining production, reduced exports, lower refining volumes, and closed fields would mean job losses and shrinking investment in the sector. In the long run, relying on Chinese fuel imports would leave Russia more economically vulnerable.