Scientists Warn of Shift in Tropical Rainy Season and Increased Storm Intensity by 45%

Mega Storms Instead of Tropical Downpours. Scientists Warn About New Climate Risks

According to НВ — Техно: August 19, 18:01. Researchers from China and the USA published results of climate modeling in the journal Nature Geoscience, indicating that significant warming shifts the tropical rainy season 10-15 days later. The intensity of storms increases by 38-45%. The scientists attribute these changes to alterations in Hadley cells, specifically an increase in the convective available potential energy (CAPE) by 35-40% and convective inhibition (CIN) by 90-130%. This leads to moisture accumulation and the formation of extremely powerful downpours.

Consequences of Climate Changes

The shift in the timing and intensity of precipitation creates new risks for agriculture, logistics, and the safety of millions of people. In particular, mesoscale convective systems (MCS), which provide more than half of the precipitation in the tropics, become the cause of large-scale sudden floods. Changes in climatic conditions may impact regional ecosystems and economies, even if the overall annual precipitation remains unchanged.

Scientists note that due to the increased heat capacity of the atmosphere, the seasonal movement of energy between the hemispheres slows down. As a result, new meteorological conditions may pose challenges for many countries located in tropical zones. The extreme warming scenario used is primarily an experiment, but its results are already raising concerns among experts in climate change.

The new research findings emphasize the importance of monitoring climate changes and their impacts on natural systems and human life.

Changes in precipitation seasonality and intensity may have serious consequences for food security, as agriculture depends on stable weather conditions. In this regard, at-risk countries need to adapt their water resource management and agricultural strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of the new climate realities.