2025 Marks the End of Globalization, Warns Strategist

Geopolitical Turmoil and the End of an Era

According to ХВИЛЯ: At a private gathering hosted by the law firm Burr & Forman, geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan declared that 2025 will be the final year of globalization. He attributes the unraveling of the global system to aging demographics, a crisis in chip manufacturing, depleted U.S. stocks of Patriot missiles, and the impact of low-cost drones on the war in Ukraine. Zeihan noted that Russia's daily losses in Ukraine now exceed its birth rate, while Ukrainian drones have stripped Russia of control over territory beyond the front line. This analysis comes amid growing concerns over shifting global power dynamics and the fragility of interconnected economies.

Demographic Pressures and Technological Disruption

Zeihan identifies demographic challenges and sectoral crises as the primary drivers behind globalization's collapse. He points out that China's economic growth has plummeted by 75% over the past decade, according to conservative estimates. Chinese statisticians acknowledge 100 million surplus people under 40, with the real figure potentially reaching 300–500 million. High-end semiconductors essential for modern technology are produced exclusively using EUV lithography, a capability held solely by the Dutch company ASML.

Zeihan also highlights ammunition production issues in the United States. In Ukraine, drones have proven highly effective, inflicting severe damage on Russia's energy infrastructure. According to Zeihan,

“the naval drones Ukrainians use to sink ships work very well-each carries half a ton of explosives.”

Since March, Ukrainians have been deploying second-generation memory drones by the hundreds daily, and nearly all damage to Russia's energy sector over the last three months has come from these new drones.

Regarding the war in Ukraine, Zeihan observed that

“we are now seeing over 1,000 Russian soldiers killed per day.”

This indicates that Russian army losses far exceed the country's birth rate. “More Russian men are dying at the front than babies are being born in the country,” he emphasized. Zeihan also stressed the energy crisis, stating that “Ukrainians will likely destroy Russia as a major player in the oil market by the end of the year.”

Commenting on U.S. political trends, Zeihan noted that Trump 2.0 is more economically nationalist than Biden, while Biden was more economically nationalist than Trump 1.0. He pointed out that the MAGA faction within the Republican Party has nearly doubled to an absolute majority, and seven Republican senators have blocked the confirmation of officials 37 times in the last three months.

In summary, Zeihan concluded that globalization is coming to an end, bringing new challenges for many countries, particularly the U.S. and China. Key factors such as demographics, the energy crisis, and technological shifts are poised to significantly impact the global economy and politics in the near future.

Zeihan's views reflect growing anxiety over global trends that could drastically alter the balance of power worldwide. The dismantling of globalization, in his view, may lead to fresh economic and political hurdles requiring swift responses from governments and international organizations. Amid rising tensions between major powers, especially the U.S. and China, monitoring these developments and their effects on the global economy is crucial.

As the world grapples with the implications of diminishing globalization, it's crucial to understand the broader context of shifting power dynamics. Recent analyses suggest that we are experiencing a transitional phase, where the global order is in flux. To explore these developments further, read about how the world is navigating a delicate balance between emerging and established systems in our detailed report on the pause between two global orders.